The outlook for the Gold price is currently highly uncertain. he further development of the precious metal depends heavily on whether and how quickly the market turmoil subsides and the Fed is able to raise its interest rates further, economists at Commerzbank report. If further bankruptcies follow or if the market increasingly prices in the risk of contagion effects, interest rate expectations could fall further and the Gold price could, in turn, receive further tailwind as a result.
Gold would likely give up its recent gains if market mood improves
We had previously assumed a Gold price of $1,950 at the end of the year, as we had expected that the market would only increasingly bet on a turnaround of interest rates in the second half of the year. This has now occurred much earlier due to the turmoil in the banking sector. Thus, if these continue, XAU/USD should reach our year-end forecast already in the near future.
If fears can be allayed, this could allow the Fed to raise interest rates further in order to curb inflation, which remains too high. In this case, Gold would likely give up its recent gains.
For the second half of the year, we would continue to expect Gold to recover even in this scenario, as the aggressive interest rate hikes should then start to be felt in the real economy. The market's focus would subsequently turn to possible interest rate cuts, which should make Gold look more attractive again in relative terms.