The Cable on the H4 time frame had strong bullish trend that lasted until 20 October when the last higher top was recorded at 1.38346. A closer look at the Momentum Oscillator reveals a negative divergence between point a and b when comparing the higher tops at 1.37730 and 1.38340. This could have alerted technical traders that the bullish trend was losing momentum. After the higher top at 1.38346, the market structure changed and the price broke through the 15 and 34 Simple Moving Averages with the Momentum Oscillator following suite by changing direction to the bearish side.
A possible critical support level formed when a bottom was recorded on 22 October at 1.37358. The bulls made a stand and tried to takeover the market again but they did not succeed and on 25 October at 1.37923 a resistance level was formed. The bears now have an opportunity to shine, and it seems like they are taking hold of it.
If the bears manage to break through the critical support level at 1.37358, then three possible price targets can be projected from there. Attaching the Fibonacci tool to the bottom at 1.37358, and dragging it to the resistance level at 1.37923, the following targets can be calculated. The first target may be estimated at 1.37009 (161.8%). The second price target might be calculated at 1.36444 (261.8%) and the third and final target may be expected at 1.35530 (423.6%).
If the resistance level at 1.37923 is broken, the above scenario is invalid and must be re-evaluated. As long as bears keep adding momentum to the Cable, the outlook for this market will remain on the bearish side.
