Volatility could pick up as markets open

28 May, 2019

Lack of economic news or developments within the global themes played on the currency markets on Monday. With the US and UK markets closed on Monday due to bank holidays, activity was subdued. However, volatility could pick up as investors return from the extended weekend.

Euro Muted to EU Parliament Results

The euro currency was muted as results poured in from the weekend EU wide parliamentary elections. Although populist and anti-EU parties made further inroads, the support was still lower than anticipated. This led to the European equity indexes closing higher on the day. Economic data was subdued even in the Eurozone.

EURUSD Retreats After a Two-Day Gain

The common currency was seen extending declines in the early hours today. This follows a bearish close on Monday which comes after a solid rebound in the currency pair. The euro pared losses as it reversed off lows near 1.1106 last Thursday. Price is seen testing the support at 1.1182. A break down below this level could see the euro retesting the previous lows.

Crude Oil Holds as Russia Oil Production Hits a Snag

Crude oil prices managed to hold on the gains, albeit near two-month lows. Production data showed that Russian crude oil was lower in May. This was primarily due to oil contamination in one of the pipelines. As part of the production cuts, Russia is expected to cut production by 230,000 bpd.

WTI Crude Oil Likely to Target $60

The current consolidation in oil prices has led to price action posting a potential ascending triangle pattern. With the resistance level at 58.98, a breakout above this level could push oil prices further. The initial target is seen at the 60.33 handle. Retesting this level to form resistance could potentially cap further gains. This will keep oil prices ranging within 60.33 and 57.50 levels in the near term.

Gold Prices Drift Amid Lack of Catalysts

Gold prices were muted on Monday, despite price initially attempting to test intraday highs. With the US and UK markets closed and economic data from the EU staying sparse, the precious metal was seen giving up the gains by the day’s close. Gold prices advanced a meager 0.02% on the day.

XAUUSD Retreats as a Reversal Pattern Emerges

The precious metal was seen reversing gains but a lot is left to be seen how price action unfolds during the day. A bearish close following Monday’s Doji candlestick pattern could suggest some near term downside in price. The lower support at 1270 will once again become critical for gold. The evolving head and shoulders pattern remains in play still and could be validated on a break down below 1270 support.

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