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Market Watch: Canadian GDP

29 May 2020

The world economy is on the verge of collapse with most countries showing record declines, but the situation in the stock markets remains relatively stable. Oil prices are recovering despite the unexpected growth in stocks.

Let me remind you that yesterday the US Department of Energy recorded an increase in oil reserves of almost 8 million barrels, while analysts predicted a decrease of 2.5 million which means the forecast was missed by more than 10 million barrels. In any case the price of WTI crude oil continued to rise. All this indicates that traders and investors are extremely optimistic about the near future.

The expectation of a rapid recovery in the global economy is one of the key bull drivers for the black gold market. At the same time, it is already evident that the reduction in oil production in the framework of the OPEC+ deal, which entered into force on May 1, is not able to fully compensate for the decrease in physical demand for oil. As a result, the risk of a short-term decline in oil prices remains elevated.

I also draw your attention to the published report on inflation figures in the eurozone which came in as analysts had expected and so the market remained quiet. Therefore, only a weakening of the USD can provide the necessary support to the EUR/USD currency pair to reach the target level of 1.1145.

Now let's move on to the upcoming publication of GDP in Canada. This release is very important, as even rising oil prices can’t provide significant CAD support. Let me remind you that economists expect a decrease in GDP by 10% in March which is a strong bearish factor for CAD. Therefore, if the GDP figures come in below expectations the CAD may come under pressure at the time of release.

And we will complete today's review with an analysis of a transaction for the purchase of a EUR/USD currency pair in the amount of 2 lots from the technical support level of 1.1000. Let me remind you that this level served as a resistance for a long time. The Take Profit order was set at the next technical resistance level of 1.1075.The  Stop Loss order at 1.0975. The profit on this transaction amounted to $1,500, which amounted to three times the risk.



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