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Slow start to a busy week

19 April 2021

Asian shares were mostly higher on Monday while US equity futures are trading mixed after the S&P 500 and Dow Jones closed at all-time highs on Friday. Last week’s strong economic data from the United States and China have fueled hopes of a solid global economic recovery. Bumper corporate earnings from US banks have also injected equity bulls with enough inspiration to elevate indices to record highs.

These themes are likely to support the risk-on mood despite global Covid-19 cases hitting a weekly record last week. European stocks have opened marginally higher this morning amid the market positivity and this could trickle down into Wall Street later in the afternoon.

Despite all this positivity, it does feel like a sluggish start to what should be a busy week for markets. Today, the calendar is void of any major economic releases in the United States, United Kingdom and Europe. There is little movement across currency markets at the time of writing while Gold is hovering around $1777. But given how earnings season is set to build momentum through the week and major economies will release key data that could influence sentiment, things could liven up in the next few days.

Dollar still sulking

The dollar has stumbled into the new week under pressure as Treasury yields lingered near their lowest in five weeks. The greenback has weakened against most G10 currencies this morning with the Dollar Index (DXY) wobbling above the 91.50 support. Since the start of April, the DXY has lost roughly 1.80% and this may continue despite the string of encouraging data from the United States pointing to an accelerated economic recovery. As investors accept the Federal Reserves' vow to keep an accommodative monetary policy stance until it sees stronger employment and inflation, dollar bears might remain in the driving seat.  With the DXY trading below the 200-day SMA and respecting the bearish trend, further downside could be on the cards. A solid breakdown below 91.50 should open the doors towards 91.30 and 90.80.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold drew ample strength from falling Treasury yields and a weaker dollar last week. The commodity is up over 4% this month and has the ability to push higher amid rising tensions between the United States and Russia. However, gold bears could still make an appearance as economic data from the two largest economies in the world remains highly encouraging and may boost global sentiment. If risk-on becomes the name of the game, it could hit appetite for safe-haven gold. Looking at the technical picture, gold bulls are back in town and look to have an appetite for $1800.



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