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USD remains Bid, Equities and Yields lower

21 June 2021

USD holds onto gains from last week. USDIndex over 92.00. US Equities lost over 1.5% (USA500 -55pts to 4166 (-1.31%), Dow -1.58%) & Asian markets (save China) very weak (Nikkei -3.3%). US 10 yr yields @ 1.39% (4 week low) & 30yr yields under 2% (4 mth low). JPY, AUD & NZD tad stronger to open. EUR down to 1.1875, JPY 110.00 & Cable 1.3815. Gold dived to $1760 on Friday back to $1778 now. USOil spiked down to $69.80 on Friday back to $72.00 now, over the weekend Iranian Nuclear talks broke down & Iran elected a very hardliner new president. US Senate coming together on much reduced $1 trillion Infrastructure – Biden unhappy. Bullard talked of tapering & Kashkari of no rate rises until 2024.

Week Ahead – BOE Super Thursday, Powell Testifies to Congress Tuesday and a week of PMI data. US lots of Fedspeak has GDP, CPE, Housing and US Durable Goods.   

European Open – Markets continue to adjust the changed rate outlook, with the hawkish turn at the Fed weighing on shorter dating bonds, while bringing down rates at the long end. The September 10-year Bund future is up 33 ticks, US futures are outperforming. Reflation trades are being unwound and while the actual lift off in rates is still a long way off, even in the US, it is clear that the period of ever rising monetary support is coming to an end. Stocks are struggling in this environment and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.9% and -0.7% respectively. US futures are also in the red, after Japanese markets led a sell off overnight.

Today – ECB weekly bond purchases, Williams, Bullard, Kaplan and ECB’s Lagarde

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.51%) recovered from last weeks sell-off (0.7150 – 0.6925) pushed to 0.6972 earlier, breaking 20Hr MA.  Faster MAs remain aligned higher,  RSI 50 and starting to rise but remains from neutral, MACD signal line and histogram rising but remain below 0 line. H1 ATR 0.0014 Daily ATR 0.0071.



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