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USD subdued, Bonds leap & Stocks hold gains

5 July 2021

The Dollar weakened, Bonds & Stocks rallied  following NFP (850k vs 700k but an uptick for Unemployment & patchy Earnings) and ahead of long weekend. Asian markets follow through overnight – but big miss for Chinese Services PMI’s virus developments and China’s bid to curb the influence of internet giants quells the rally. Yields; the biggest driver – 10yr lost -3.31%, 5yr -4.77% & 30yr -1.97%. USDIndex holds 92.30, USA 500 4352. (Tech stocks lead rally (GOOGL+2.30%) Overnight AUD building approvals weaker but Retail Sales better. EUR 1.1855, JPY down to 111.00 & Cable tests up to 1.3835. Gold still rotates at $1785, USOil  Holds over $74.00 at 74.35 as OPEC issues rumble on.

Week Ahead – FOMC Minutes, RBA Rate Decision, ECB Growth Forecasts & Special Strategy Meeting.  

European Open  – The September 10-year Bund future is fractionally higher, while in cash markets the 10-year Bund yield is unchanged at -0.24%. Other Eurozone bond markets are underperforming in early trade, while U.S. markets remain closed today for the observance of July 4 Independence Day. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.03% and 0.106% respectively, suggesting a cautious start to trading today.  US Stock FUTS in the red so far.

Today  – OPEC developments continue as the UAE and Saudi disagree over quotas;  – EZ & UK PMIs (Final) ECB speak and US Independence Day.

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Copper (+1.59%) Rallied from 4.222 lows on Friday  to test 4.350 (20-day MA) today. Faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 73.50 OB but still rising, MACD signal line and histogram rising remain significantly above 0 line. Stochs rising and also in OB zone.  H1 ATR 0.0150 Daily ATR 0.0950.



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