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NZD/USD: in anticipation of the meeting of RBNZ


10 June 2015

Current trend

Awaiting the meeting of the RBNZ at 00:00 (GMT+3) on Thursday, market participants express different opinions about the monetary policy and the decline rate in the interest rates in New Zealand. Even if the interest rate does not lowered on Thursday, a tendency to soften monetary policy by the end of the year is likely to continue.

The pair is moving in the overall weekly downtrend. Over the last month the pair has lost more than 500 points. However, the pair is supported by the difference between interest rates of the USA and New Zealand. The rise in the pair will be restricted by the soft monetary policy of the RBNZ, low prices for dairy products and also by the intention of the US Fed to raise interest rate before the end of this year.

Support and resistance

In case of breakdown of the support level of 0.7100 (ÅÌÀ200 on the monthly chart), downtrend in the pair NZD/USD will continue in the medium-term. On the daily and four-hour charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give signals for the long positions; however, this will be the correction within the overall downward movement.

Resistance levels: 0.7220, 0.7255, 0.7300 and 0.7385.

Support levels: 0.7150, 0.7080, 0.7050 and 0.7000.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open short positions at the current price and from the levels of 0.7255 (ÅÌÀ144) and 0.7300 (ÅÌÀ200 on the four-hour chart). In case of breakdown of the level of 0.7310 and if this will be the closing level of the day, long positions can be opened with the targets of 0.7385, 0.7450, 0.7550 and 07600.

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