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NZDUSD touches new 6-month high; bullish picture


22 July 2020

NZDUSD is recording a stunning rally over the last couple of days towards the fresh six-month high of 0.6665, holding above the four-month ascending trend line.

The RSI is currently increasing positive momentum towards its overbought threshold, while the MACD is slowing down in the positive territory, hinting that the next move in prices could be on the downside rather than on the upside. However, the 20- and 40-day simple moving averages (SMAs) and the Ichimoku lines are pointing upwards following the market reaction.

Should the market extend gains, resistance could be met at the 0.6750 barrier, taken from the peak on December 2019. A step above this level could hit the nearby level of 0.6790, registered on July 2019, while if the market fails to hold below this level, the next stop could be at the 0.6940 hurdle, identified on March 2019.

On the flip side, if the pair bounces down, immediate support could come at the 0.6600 psychological mark before touching the 20- and 40-day SMAs currently at 0.6530 and 0.6477 respectively. Stepper decreases, could take the market below the rising line, resting near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the up leg from 0.5467 to 0.6665 at 0.6375, shifting the bullish outlook to neutral.

In the bigger picture, the pair is bullish as long as it holds above the 200-day SMA and the uptrend line. In case it violates this line, bears could take the upper hand. 

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