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NZDUSD still bullish, edges toward tentative uptrend line

2 June 2021

NZDUSD has found a toehold on the mid-Bollinger band, a tad beneath the 0.7239 level, which happens to be the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from 0.6510 until 0.7464. The minor pickup in the slope of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and a possible bullish crossover of the flattening 100-day SMA, slightly overhead at 0.7179, could aid short-term improvements in the price. The 200-day SMA continues to act as a shield for the broader bullish picture.

The short-term oscillators are reflecting the latest failed attempts in the price to close above the 0.7300 mark. Negative pressures have yet to take a decisive lead, despite the recent lack of sturdy positive momentum. The MACD, not too far above zero, is holding north of its red trigger line, while the RSI is sliding towards its neutral threshold. The negatively charged stochastic oscillator is also promoting negative price action.

If negative pressures persist, sellers may face an immediate cluster of support barriers from the mid-Bollinger band until the lower Bollinger band at 0.7142, including the uptrend line – pulled from the 0.6942 low – and the respective nearby SMAs. Slightly lower, the 38.2% Fibo of 0.7098 could come into play. Should the 38.2% Fibo fail to negate a deeper plunge in the pair, sellers could then target the 200-day SMA at 0.7020 and the adjacent support base of 0.6942-0.7000.

Alternatively, improving above the 23.6% Fibo of 0.7239, the price may meet early resistance from the upper Bollinger band at 0.7313. Overcoming this could then propel the price towards the resistance belt of 0.7437-0.7464. Overstepping the latter, which happens to be the multi-year peak of 0.7464, the bulls may then challenge the resistance border of 0.7524-0.7577, moulded by three rally peaks from September 2017, January and February 2018.

Concluding, NZDUSD still possesses a neutral-to-bullish demeanour above the diagonal support and the SMAs. Furthermore, currently the bears lack the force necessary to accelerate negative tendencies.



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