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USDJPY lifeless, confined in a horizontal structure


8 September 2020

USDJPY remains ruled by a sideways market, maintaining the price between the boundaries of 105.09 and 107.04. The Ichimoku cloud and lines still reflect weak directional momentum, while the gliding and converged simple moving averages (SMAs) appear powerless in assisting the price out of this range.

The short-term oscillators further display the non-existent directional momentum. The MACD, slightly above zero, is floating just below its red trigger line, while the RSI is pointing upwards near its 50 threshold. The stochastic %K line has turned upwards ahead of the 20 level in an effort to build some momentum.

If buyers manage to push above the red Tenkan-sen line, initial resistance may develop from the 106.44 level, that being the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from 101.17 to 111.71, and the 106.54 barrier overhead. Overtaking these, a section of multiple highs from 106.94 to 107.04 could prevent the pair from building confidence. Overcoming the range’s upper frontier, the price may meet the 107.22 peak prior to turning its focus to the 38.2% Fibo of 107.69.

Otherwise, if sellers re-emerge, early tough support may arise from the cloud’s upper surface at 106.07 until the 200-period SMA at 105.94. Surpassing this zone of tough obstacles, the pair may rest at the 105.59 nearby low. Should sellers persist, the floor of the sideways market from the 61.8% Fibo of 105.20 until the 105.09 low may attempt to halt the decline. Additional loss of ground may then test the 104.18 trough before eyes turn to the 76.4% Fibo of 103.66.

In brief, the short-term bias remains confined in a neutral pattern. A break either above 107.04 or below 105.09 could reveal the next direction more clearly.

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