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USDJPY crowned by 200-MA; price appears static

5 October 2020

USDJPY is struggling to push above the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) as directional momentum has dampened. The Ichimoku lines appear powerless in aiding the stagnant pair while the flattening out of the simple moving averages (SMAs) promotes additional sideways development.

The MACD has improved marginally above zero and its red trigger line but remains around its neutral zone, while the RSI is losing pace in bullish territory. Moreover, the stochastics %K line is stalling in the overbought section but has yet to confirm a negative tone.

If selling interest picks up, initial friction may commence from the 50-period SMA at 105.49 and the cloud’s upper boundary, ahead of the 100-period SMA and Ichimoku lines around 105.29. A step lower may meet the 105.20 support, which happens to be the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from 101.17 to 111.71. Should the price dip lower, a critical support area of 104.81-104.93, that encapsulates the cloud’s lower band, may try to halt the decline. If extra losses unfold, the pair may test the 104.40 level ahead of the 6-month trough of 104.00.

To the upside, tough resistance may arise from the 105.68 to 105.81 section of highs, where the 200-period SMA also resides. Overcoming this trench, the pair may shoot for the 106.25 barrier before challenging the resistance band from the 50.0% Fibo of 106.44 until the 106.54 top. Overrunning these obstacles too, the pair may target the region of peaks between 106.94 and 107.04.

Overall, the pair remains neutral in the short-term timeframe. A break either above 105.81 or below 104.81 may trigger the next price direction.




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