The US dollar remains under pressure. June data on the real estate market in the US were published yesterday. Thus, the number of building permits decreased by 3.7% from 1.496 million to 1.440 million, and the volume of construction of new houses – by 8% from 1.559 million to 1.434 million. Both indicators turned out worse than experts’ expectations. The housing sector is showing signs of weakness, which may allow US Federal Reserve officials to complete the current tightening cycle. Most analysts believe that at the next meeting the regulator will increase the interest rate by 10 or 25 basis points and then keep the rate unchanged until the end of the year. Today data on initial jobless claims will be released. If the statistics disappoint again, the pressure on the dollar will increase.
SELL STOP 99.80/TP 99.00/SL 100.10
USD/JPY
he USD/JPY pair is consolidating near 139.50. Next week the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve will hold their monetary policy meetings, which can seriously affect the market movement. Experts fear that the Japanese regulator will maintain a wait-and-see attitude and will not make changes to its ultra-loose monetary policy, despite rising inflation. Japan’s June CPI data will be released on Friday, with the headline inflation expected to rise from 3.2% to 3.5% on an annual basis and the core CPI is expected to increase from 3.2% to 3.3%, which is unlikely to convince officials of the need to abandon soft rhetoric. Earlier, the head of the department, Kazuo Ueda, had already called for caution in tightening monetary policy. In his opinion, leaving the economy without economic stimulation during the global crisis is a bad decision. Against this backdrop, the USD/JPY pair may develop an upward momentum.
BUY STOP 139.80/TP 141.00/SL 139.40
APPLE
Shares of Apple (AAPL) are trading at $195. Analysts positively assess the company’s development prospects. In particular, the agency KeyBanc Capital Markets increased the target price for the issuer’s securities to $200, while maintaining the “above the market” rating. Meanwhile, analysts at Morgan Stanley revised their price growth forecast by $30 to $220 at once, noting that a successful expansion in the Indian market could become a new driver of positive dynamics. According to experts, this country could account for up to 15% of earnings growth over the next five years, despite the fact that now India’s share in Apple’s revenue is only 2%.
BUY STOP 196/TP 220/SL 187