The US dollar index is trading near 102.50. The dollar was supported by a strong report on the labor market from ADP, which allowed market participants to start discussing the possibility of another rate hike in the US. However, it is too early to draw such conclusions. Everything will depend on the official nonfarm payrolls report, which will be released on Friday. According to forecasts, statistics may disappoint, same as in June, when the dollar hit new local lows. Today, traders will be presented with data on initial jobless claims and business activity for the service sector. Weak reports may put pressure on the dollar.
SELL STOP 102.20/TP 101.50/SL 102.40
XAU/USD
Gold is trading near $1,940. Pressure on gold is exerted by a local recovery of the dollar in anticipation of the US labor market data. The nonfarm payrolls report will be published on Friday. Together with the dollar growth, US Treasury yields also demonstrate positive dynamics, which further reduces the attractiveness of precious metals. Let’s recall that there is an inverse price correlation between gold and treasuries. If bond yields go up, gold goes down, and vice versa. Analysts predict that before the release of the nonfarm payrolls data, gold prices may test the $1,920 level.
SELL STOP 1930/TP 1910/SL 1937
WTI
WTI oil is consolidating near $80. Bloomberg analysts predict an oil supply shortage in the global market, which may reach 1.2 million barrels per day in the second half of the year. Against this backdrop, buyers are increasingly in demand for Russian Urals oil, the price of which again set a historical record, reaching $64 per barrel, exceeding the $60 limit set by the West. Oil buyers are also supported by data on US oil inventories. Oil inventories fell by 17 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. Given the above, oil may continue its upward trend.
BUY STOP 80.00/TP 82.00/SL 79.30
