The USD/JPY pair comes under some selling pressure on Tuesday and erodes a part of the previous day's strong gains to the 133.85 region, or its highest level since mid-March. Spot prices drop to a fresh daily low, around the 133.00 round-figure mark during the early part of the European session and for now, seem to have snapped a three-day winning streak.
The US Dollar (USD) meets with some supply and stalls a four-day-old recovery trend from over a two-month low touched last week, which, in turn, is seen dragging the USD/JPY pair lower. The USD downtick, however, seems limited amid speculations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may continue raising interest rates. In fact, the current market pricing indicates a greater chance of a 25 bps lift-off at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting in May and the bets were lifted by the mostly upbeat US employment details (NFP) released on Friday.
- USD/JPY retreats from over a three-week high touched on Monday amid a modest USD weakness.
- A generally positive risk tone could undermine the safe-haven JPY and lend support to the major.
- The divergent Fed-BoJ policy outlook also warrants caution before placing aggressive bearish bets.
The prospects for further policy tightening by the Fed, meanwhile, puts a floor under the US Treasury bond yields, which should further act as a tailwind for the Greenback. Apart from this, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) dovish near-term outlook, along with a generally positive tone around the equity markets, could undermine the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY) and help limit losses for the USD/JPY pair. It is worth recalling that the new BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday it was appropriate to maintain the ultra-loose stance as inflation has yet to hit 2% as a trend.
Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and prefer to move to the sidelines ahead of this week's key data/event risks from the US - the release of consumer inflation figures and the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. This, along with the US Retail Sales report on Friday, will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics and provide a fresh directional impetus to the USD/JPY pair. This makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for any meaningful slide in the absence of any relevant data on Tuesday.
