HFM information and reviews
HFM
96%
Octa information and reviews
Octa
94%
FXCC information and reviews
FXCC
92%
FxPro information and reviews
FxPro
89%
FBS information and reviews
FBS
88%
Vantage information and reviews
Vantage
85%

Equities rebound but face danger from US presidential debate


10 September 2024 Written by Raffi Boyadjian XM Investment Analyst Raffi Boyadjian

Stocks breathe better

US equity markets recorded gains in yesterday’s session, with the Nasdaq 100 index leading the rally, and euro/dollar dropped close to 1.1030 despite the fact that most participants remain uncertain about next week’s Fed rate cut size and confused about the medium-term outlook of the global economy. With China’s data releases continuing to disappoint, the overall sentiment remains fragile.

The calendar is rather light today with the markets already thinking about Wednesday’s US CPI report. While the US labour market is the key input in the Fed's decision process, inflation could play a role in determining the size of next week’s rate cut. A significant downside surprise, possibly on the back of the performance of oil prices during August, could somewhat increase the pressure on the Fed to start its easing cycle with a 50bps rate cut.

While most economists appear confident that the 25bps rate move forecast will be confirmed on September 18, a significant miss in tomorrow's CPI report could also affect the rhetoric accompanying the Fed rate cut. Especially in the case of an upside CPI surprise, it would be difficult for Fed Chairman Powell to talk down the US economy.

It's presidential debate time

The focus today is also on the first Trump-Harris presidential debate. The importance of this televised discussion cannot be understated as the abysmal performance of incumbent US president Biden at the late-June debate against Trump essentially forced him out of the race.

Kamala Harris is leading in the polls, and a strong performance at tonight’s debate could constitute a significant step towards solidifying her chances for a November win. However, considering Trump’s aggressive style, it will be a real test of her capabilities, especially when the Republican presidential candidate makes personal attacks.

Economy-wise, both candidates are unlikely to go significantly off script from their known positions with Trump portraying himself as more pro-business than Harris. Barring a major surprise and assuming that none of the candidates makes a serious mistake or loses his/her temper, the markets are unlikely to be greatly affected. However, should the debate produce a clear and undisputed winner, then we could see a reaction in risky assets.

UK labour market remains tight

Another set of positive UK employment data has helped the pound gain a few pips against both the euro and the dollar. Specifically, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, the growth in average earnings excluding bonuses continues to hover around 5%, well above the current inflation rate, and the August claimant count showed a small 23.7k increase.

Coupled with the recent positive PMI surveys and good news for the housing sector, the UK economy seems to be performing better than anticipated. Tomorrow’s packed data calendar could confirm the latest trend, partly justifying the market pricing in a 27% probability for another 25bps rate cut at next week’s BoE meeting.

Bitcoin follows equities higher, gold at $2,500

The crypto market continues to exhibit high volatility with Bitcoin rallying around 10% from Friday’s low before settling in the $56,800 area. The correlation with US equities remains high, despite efforts by crypto insiders to present bitcoin as a gold alternative. 

In the meantime, gold managed to survive relatively unscathed from the news that China did not buy gold for a fourth consecutive month. There is a lot of speculation about China’s absence, but, nevertheless, gold continues to hover in the $2,500 region, thus maintaining its recent gains.

By XM.com

#source


RELATED

Dollar stands tall after robust jobs report

Strong US data dent chances of a 50bps Fed rate cut; Plethora of Fed speakers on the wires today. Dollar enjoys strong gains, stocks rally unexpectedly. Oil pushes higher as gold's retreat continues.

7 Oct 2024

Dollar gets a boost from Fed's Powell but will the move last?

Fed's Powell talks down expectations for another 50bps rate cut. Dollar benefits, US stocks shake off the initial negative reaction.

1 Oct 2024

PCE inflation corroborates dovish Fed bets

The dollar slipped against most of its major peers after Friday’s data revealed that the headline PCE price index slowed more than expected in August.

30 Sep 2024

Equities are on autopilot but cannot help the dollar

Increased expectations for another 50bps Fed cut. Dollar continues to suffer but euro's strength is perplexing.

25 Sep 2024

Global broker Octa deploys an AI-based tool for traders to boost trade analysis

Since the first days of Artificial Intelligence’s rapid expansion into various industries, the financial sector has been one of the leading adopters of these technologies.

24 Sep 2024

Markets digest Fed decision. BoE and BoJ stand pat

Dollar tumbles on bets of more aggressive Fed rate cuts. BoE keeps rates steady, reiterating cation about future cuts.BoJ stands pat, Ueda says more rate hikes are coming. S&P 500, Dow Jones and gold hit new record highs.

20 Sep 2024

Fed goes big with first rate cut

Fed lowers interest rates by 50bps. New dot plot signals another 50bps cuts by December. Wall Street closes in the red, futures point to higher open. BoE and BoJ take the central bank torch.

19 Sep 2024

Stocks extend gains as a 50bps Fed cut becomes more likely

Stocks in the green as a 50bps Fed rate cut is expected. US retail sales today could prolong dollar's weakness. Loonie could suffer from another weak CPI report. Gold remains bid as US yields continue to drop.

17 Sep 2024

Slow start to the week ahead of the Fed meeting

Mixed movements in FX but the yen remains on the front foot. Stocks recorded their best weekly performance of 2024. Another assassination attempt against Trump. Bitcoin suffers while gold reaches a new all-time high.

16 Sep 2024

Equities are directionless ahead of US inflation report

Mixed movements in equities as markets prepare for CPI. Strong possibility for a downside surprise in inflation. US presidential debate dominates headlines. Bitcoin suffers while gold and yen rally.

11 Sep 2024

Investors lock gaze on NFP data

Dollar slides as data offer little respite to concerned investors. NFP to accelerate somewhat, but PMI surveys pose downside risks.

6 Sep 2024

Wall Street tumbles amid September blues

Yen and franc gain, aussie the main loser. Wall Street tumbles on risk-off September start - ISM mfg. PMI rekindles economic concerns. Oil collapses on prospect of Libyan accord.

4 Sep 2024

Dollar could suffer if the ISM survey disappoints

Markets are preparing for an action-packed week. The US dollar is on the front foot following the bank holiday. Focus turns to the ISM manufacturing survey today. Gold drops, oil recovers but outlook remains mixed.

3 Sep 2024

Markets cautious as Nvidia earnings and key US data loom

Dollar pauses slide as jobs and inflation data awaited. Yen pulls back but hawkish BoJ signals keep it elevated. Wall Street awaits Nvidia, oil retreats on demand worries.

28 Aug 2024

Markets position ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole speech

Dollar rebounds despite jobless claims increase. Traders position for Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech. Yen rebounds as BoJ's Ueda appears willing to continue hiking rates. Wall Street slips as tech shares weigh, gold pulls back.

23 Aug 2024

Dollar under pressure ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium

Stocks in the green again as investors await the Jackson Hole gathering. Economists look for strong Fed easing in 2024 despite recession talk dissipating. Dollar remains on the back foot against most currencies.

20 Aug 2024

US retail sales eyed after CPI report fails to set off fireworks

US inflation eases further in July but market reaction is muted. Wall Street unimpressed, dollar mixed. Yen and pound supported by upbeat GDP data.

15 Aug 2024

Stocks edge up in calm before the storm

Stocks edge higher as gold benefits from geopolitical risks. Pound rallies despite shock claimant count change. French political issues return to the foreground. RBNZ meeting could lead to significant kiwi underperformance.

13 Aug 2024

BoJ Summary of Opinions reveals hawkish mood

Yen pullback stopped by hawkish BoJ Summary. Fed cut bets remain dovish, traders await next week's data. Tech shares drag Wall Street down again. Gold rebounds, but remains well off its records.

8 Aug 2024

Yen weakens as positive market sentiment lingers

Markets continue to recover led by the Nikkei 225 index. BoJ comments result in yen underperformance. Light calendar again today, focus on geopolitics. Kiwi benefits from strong labour market data.

7 Aug 2024


Editors' Picks

Regulation Matters: Why a Licensed Forex Broker Should Be Your Top Priority

Choosing a regulated broker is not just a matter of preference; it is a necessity for safeguarding your investments and ensuring that you trade in a fair and secure environment.

Automating Success: The Benefits and Risks of Using Forex Expert Advisors

This article explores the benefits and risks associated with using Forex Expert Advisors, providing insights into how traders can maximize their potential while mitigating potential downsides.

Best Forex Brokers 2024

By prioritizing factors such as overall rating, regulatory compliance, trading conditions and platform reliability traders can make an informed decision that aligns with their trading needs and aspirations, setting the stage for a potentially prosperous trading journey.

The Top Forex Expert Advisors 2024: Performance, Strategy, and Reliability Review

An annual roundup reviewing the most successful Forex Expert Advisors (EAs) based on their performance, strategies employed, reliability, and user feedback. This piece would provide insights into which EAs have been market leaders and why.

The Evolution of Forex Expert Advisors: Navigating the Path of Technological Revolution

The concept of automated trading has been around for decades, but the accessibility and sophistication of Forex EAs have seen significant advancements in the past few years. Initially, automated trading systems were rudimentary, focusing on simple indicators like moving averages.

Best Forex EAs 2024 – Forex Expert Advisors Rating

Expert Advisors (EAs) Rating features high-quality Free and paid Forex EA most popular on the market today.

MultiBank Group information and reviews
MultiBank Group
84%
XM information and reviews
XM
82%
FP Markets information and reviews
FP Markets
81%
FXTM information and reviews
FXTM
80%
AMarkets information and reviews
AMarkets
79%
BlackBull information and reviews
BlackBull
78%

© 2006-2024 Forex-Ratings.com

The usage of this website constitutes acceptance of the following legal information.
Any contracts of financial instruments offered to conclude bear high risks and may result in the full loss of the deposited funds. Prior to making transactions one should get acquainted with the risks to which they relate. All the information featured on the website (reviews, brokers' news, comments, analysis, quotes, forecasts or other information materials provided by Forex Ratings, as well as information provided by the partners), including graphical information about the forex companies, brokers and dealing desks, is intended solely for informational purposes, is not a means of advertising them, and doesn't imply direct instructions for investing. Forex Ratings shall not be liable for any loss, including unlimited loss of funds, which may arise directly or indirectly from the usage of this information. The editorial staff of the website does not bear any responsibility whatsoever for the content of the comments or reviews made by the site users about the forex companies. The entire responsibility for the contents rests with the commentators. Reprint of the materials is available only with the permission of the editorial staff.
We use cookies to improve your experience and to make your stay with us more comfortable. By using Forex-Ratings.com website you agree to the cookies policy.