HFM information and reviews
HFM
96%
FXCC information and reviews
FXCC
92%
FxPro information and reviews
FxPro
89%
FBS information and reviews
FBS
88%
XM information and reviews
XM
86%
NordFX information and reviews
NordFX
86%

Investors lock gaze on NFP data


6 September 2024

Raffi Boyadjian   Written by Raffi Boyadjian

Data fail to alleviate investors’ worries

The dollar traded lower against all of its major counterparts on Thursday as the boost received by the better-than-expected initial jobless claims and the improving ISM non-manufacturing PMI faded.

The reason why traders were not enthusiastic about buying more dollars may have been the soft ADP report ahead of the aforementioned data, but also the decline in the employment sub-index of the ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

Worries about the state of the US labor market pushed higher the probability of a double 50bps rate cut by the Fed at its upcoming gathering, with that probability now standing at around 45%. The total number of basis points worth of expected reductions by the end of the year also increased to 112.

NFP the dollar’s biggest test

Investors are now probably biting their nails in anticipation of the official US employment report for August, with nonfarm payrolls expected to have accelerated to 164k from 114k, and the unemployment rate to have ticked down to 4.2% from 4.3%. Such an improvement may allow the dollar to strengthen, and Treasury yields to recover as traders could see a 25bps reduction at the upcoming Fed gathering as a more realistic scenario.

That said, the ADP report revealed yesterday that the private sector gained 99k jobs in August, while the forecast of today’s report for private payrolls is at 139k. Combined with the relatively soft employment subindices of both the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs, this poses some downside risks to today’s data.

Risk appetite subdued ahead of jobs report

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones finished another day in the red, while the Nasdaq held 0.25% above its opening level. The fact that equities are sliding at times when Fed rate cut bets are piling up suggests that investors may be afraid that an economic downturn is coming.

In other words, bad data is actually bad for the stock market nowadays, as investor anxiety about the state of the world’s largest economy does not allow them to celebrate the prospect of lower borrowing costs. This means that a weaker-than-expected report may exert additional pressure on stocks and other risk-linked assets.

Gold rebounds, oil pauses free fall

The weakening dollar helped gold to rebound and get within a breathing distance from its record high of $2,532, hit on August 20. Expectations of aggressive rate cuts by the Fed are benefiting the non-yielding metal and if today’s NFP report points to further cooling in the US labor market, the metal may climb into uncharted territory.

After Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s free fall, oil prices stabilized yesterday, perhaps aided by the dollar’s retreat, but also by news that the OPEC+ group was in discussions to delay a possible output increase due to a potential increase in Libya’s production following a deal to end the dispute that curtailed exports and production.

The oil-linked loonie held relatively strong, even as the BoC cut interest rates for a third consecutive time on Wednesday. That said, with investors anticipating a fourth reduction in October, today’s employment report may be a reason for volatility in the currency, especially against its US counterpart, as the Canadian jobs data comes out at the same time as the US numbers.

by XM.com

#source


RELATED

US tariff letters boost dollar, dent risk appetite

Trump letters and August 1 deadline in focus; Dollar strengthens as both China and the EU avoid tariff letters; Equities are wobbly, while gold confirms lingering demand; Aussie gains as RBA surprises by keeping rates unchanged.

8 Jul 2025

Risk-on sentiment fades as tariffs return to the spotlight

Dollar surrenders gains posted after robust labour market report; Trump celebrates US budget bill approval; scheduled to sign it today.

4 Jul 2025

Nonfarm payrolls take center stage

Slide in US private payrolls raise concerns about NFP miss. US strikes trade deal with Vietnam ahead of July 9 deadline. Pound feels the heat of fiscal shenanigans. S&P 500 hits fresh record high ahead of jobs report.

3 Jul 2025

Dollar steadies as risk appetite eases on data and key deadlines

Dollar tumbles 14% against the euro in the first half of the year; Spotlight stays on US budget bill and trade talks; US data deluge today, an appetizer for Thursday’s jobs report; Oil hovers around $66, gold rally gains momentum.

1 Jul 2025

Trade optimism boosts Fed rate cut bets

Dollar slides as the US gets closer to trade deals. Trump's obsession with lower interest rates also weighs. S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new record highs. Gold in corrective mode due to safe-haven outflows.

30 Jun 2025

Dollar stabilizes amidst mixed risk sentiment

Israel-Iran truce holds; investors focus on the US economy; Powell shuts down July rate cut expectations; US equity rally pauses as dollar tries to recover; Oil hovers around $65, gold bounces higher.

25 Jun 2025

Dollar suffers as risk appetite takes hold

An Israel-Iran ceasefire has been agreed after 12 days of hostilities; Risk appetite gets a boost, but dollar weakness resumes; Oil surrenders its recent gains; gold slips as well; Focus today on Powell’s testimony as Fed doves push for a rate cut.

24 Jun 2025

Dollar set for weekly gains amid Israel-Iran war

Oil rebounds as supply concerns remain elevated - SNB cuts by 25bps, BoE delivers dovish hold - Wall Street resumes trading after Juneteenth.

20 Jun 2025

Dollar off highs despite rising Middle East geopolitical tensions

Israel-Iran conflict continues; US considers joining in; Dollar slips as risk appetite slightly improves; Oil maintains its recent gains, but gold fails to benefit; Pound pressure lingers as BoE meets on Thursday.

18 Jun 2025

Israel-Iran conflict remains in focus ahead of Fed decision

The US dollar slipped against all but one of its major counterparts on Monday, with the Japanese yen posting the largest loss.

17 Jun 2025

Dollar softens amidst cautious risk-on reaction

Israel-Iran confrontation intensifies; Risk appetite improves after an abysmal session on Friday; Dollar is on the back foot again; both gold and oil surrender gains; Four central bank meetings this week, starting with BoJ on Tuesday.

16 Jun 2025

Dollar slides amidst tariff rhetoric and soft US data

Trump dampens risk appetite, cites unilateral tariff plan; Dollar and equities suffer as investors also question US-China progress; British pound under pressure after another set of soft UK data.

12 Jun 2025

Dollar fails to recover as investors zoom in on trade talks

US-China talks resume; chances of an agreement increase; Mixed US stocks performance, but S&P 500 just shy of all-time high; Another set of soft UK data weighs on the British Pound; Gold trades sideways, as silver tries to keep its bullish momentum alive.

10 Jun 2025

Dollar seeks to rebound as investors zero in on US data

Trump-Musk public spat overshadows developments elsewhere. Trump-Xi call restarts US-China negotiations but outlook clouded. Key US data at 12:30 GMT; all eyes on nonfarm payrolls. Gold trades sideways, as silver jumps to a new high.

6 Jun 2025

Risk appetite takes a hit as Trump’s tariffs return to the spotlight

Dollar under pressure as Trump hardens trade stance; US administration demands trade offers from key partners; Weak start to data releases; focus today on Fedspeak; Both gold and oil surrender a small part of Monday’s gains.

3 Jun 2025

Dollar slides amid simmering trade frictions

Trump accuses China of violating deal. Threatens to increase tariff on steel and aluminum. Dollar slides, stock futures point to a lower Wall Street open. Gold attracts safe-haven flows, oil gains on OPEC’s decision.

2 Jun 2025

Dollar benefits from court’s tariff decision but outlook remains clouded

A US federal court blocks Trump’s tariff decisions; Dollar and US stocks jump on court decision, but rally already fading; Risk of Trump dropping his recent congenial stance; Gold attempts to climb higher; oil trades above $63 again.

29 May 2025

Dollar benefits amidst a muted risk-on reaction

Market participants are back in action following the US and UK bank holidays, which resulted in extremely low trading volumes during Monday’s session.

27 May 2025

Dollar weakness accelerates as risk appetite fades

Both the dollar and US stocks lose ground; Trump’s tax cut bill in the spotlight; Pound fails to react to stronger CPI report; Gold, oil and bitcoin rally on Israel-Iran headlines.

21 May 2025

Dollar struggles to maintain its recent gains

Both the dollar and US stocks seek direction as euphoria fades; Implied volatilities ease across the board. Trump calls for a Fed rate cut but bond markets disagree. Gold range trades, as oil stumbles at $64.

14 May 2025


Editors' Picks

How to Choose the Best Forex Advisor 2025

Key Factors to Consider When Choosing a Forex Advisor. Risk Management. Fees and Costs. Compatibility with Your Trading Style.

Automating Success: The Benefits and Risks of Using Forex Expert Advisors

This article explores the benefits and risks associated with using Forex Expert Advisors, providing insights into how traders can maximize their potential while mitigating potential downsides.

Best Forex Brokers 2025

By prioritizing factors such as overall rating, regulatory compliance, trading conditions and platform reliability traders can make an informed decision that aligns with their trading needs and aspirations, setting the stage for a potentially prosperous trading journey.

The Top Forex Expert Advisors 2024: Performance, Strategy, and Reliability Review

An annual roundup reviewing the most successful Forex Expert Advisors (EAs) based on their performance, strategies employed, reliability, and user feedback. This piece would provide insights into which EAs have been market leaders and why.

The Evolution of Forex Expert Advisors: Navigating the Path of Technological Revolution

The concept of automated trading has been around for decades, but the accessibility and sophistication of Forex EAs have seen significant advancements in the past few years. Initially, automated trading systems were rudimentary, focusing on simple indicators like moving averages.

Best Forex EAs – Forex Expert Advisors Rating

Expert Advisors (EAs) Rating features high-quality Free and paid Forex EA most popular on the market today.

Vantage information and reviews
Vantage
85%
FP Markets information and reviews
FP Markets
81%
IronFX information and reviews
IronFX
77%
T4Trade information and reviews
T4Trade
76%
Exness information and reviews
Exness
76%
Just2Trade information and reviews
Just2Trade
76%

© 2006-2025 Forex-Ratings.com

The usage of this website constitutes acceptance of the following legal information.
Any contracts of financial instruments offered to conclude bear high risks and may result in the full loss of the deposited funds. Prior to making transactions one should get acquainted with the risks to which they relate. All the information featured on the website (reviews, brokers' news, comments, analysis, quotes, forecasts or other information materials provided by Forex Ratings, as well as information provided by the partners), including graphical information about the forex companies, brokers and dealing desks, is intended solely for informational purposes, is not a means of advertising them, and doesn't imply direct instructions for investing. Forex Ratings shall not be liable for any loss, including unlimited loss of funds, which may arise directly or indirectly from the usage of this information. The editorial staff of the website does not bear any responsibility whatsoever for the content of the comments or reviews made by the site users about the forex companies. The entire responsibility for the contents rests with the commentators. Reprint of the materials is available only with the permission of the editorial staff.
We use cookies to improve your experience and to make your stay with us more comfortable. By using Forex-Ratings.com website you agree to the cookies policy.