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NZD/USD flat continues on 14.08.2015


14 August 2015

Current trend

The NZD remains volatile, trading not far from where it was at the start of the week. On Thursday, the USD gained back some of its losses

Yesterday, New Zealand released Business PMI for July (54.5 points from 55.1 earlier). Food Price Index grew from 0.5% to 0.6%, while House Price Index, on the contrary, fell sharply (+5.5% vs. +7.7% last month).

On Friday, Retail Sales statistics for the second quarter were published, which supported the “bearish” sentiment this morning. The indicator grew only by 0.1% from 2.7% earlier, against the forecast of 0.5%.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart remains flat. Despite a narrow price range and quite active trades, the pair dynamics fits within a short/medium term flat channel. Currently, there are no trading recommendations.

MACD is trying to turn down again, forming a sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Consider the possibility to place sell orders in the short and very short run.

Stochastic turned down near the border of the overbought zone and has not started developing the “bearish” dynamics yet. Wait for a clearer situation.

Support level: 0.6534 (the pair is testing the mark), 0.6500 and 0.6467 (12 August record low).

Resistance levels: 0.6555 (the nearest mark), 0.6600, 0.6653 (near current local highs), 0.6694, 0.6720/38 (29 July local high), 0.6770 (10 July high).

Trading tips

Open long positions when the pair rebounds from the support level of 0.6500 (with appropriate indicators signals). Set take-profit at 0.6555, 0.6580 and stop-loss at 0.6467, 0.6450.

Open short positions when the pair breaks down rebounds from 0.6500. Set take-profit at 0.6467, 0.6450 or further at 0.6400 and stop-loss at 0.6555.

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