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NZD/USD: technical analysis

23 October 2015


On the daily chart, the price remains below strong resistance at 0.6845 that it successfully tested in the end of last week but could not consolidate above the level. The price is growing towards the upper MA of Bollinger Bands and remains above the EMA130 and EMA65. Both moving averages start turning upward indicating that the longer trend might be changing. The RSI is growing to its resistance as it failed the longer MA. The Composite is heavily oversold so there is a chance the price can overcome its resistance level.


On the 4-hour chart, the price is growing along the upper MA of Bollinger Bands and has managed to close above it earlier in the day. EMA13, EMA65 and EMA130 are directed up. The RSI and Composite represent a divergence with the price suggesting a short-term downward correction in the pair. However, their MA’s point out to a strength of the market.

Key levels

Support levels: 0.6731 (50% Fibonacci retracement), 0.6697 (local lows), 0.6620 (61.8% retracement).

Resistance levels: 0.6845 (38.2% retracement), 0.6896 (local highs), 0.7000 (psychologically important level).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.6855 with the target at 0.6950 and stop-loss at 0.6825. Validity – 1-2 days.

Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.6690 with the target at 0.6501 and stop-loss at 0.6757. Validity – 2-3 days.



Scope for dips towards the 0.6793-0.6776 confluence zone
Scope for dips towards the 0.6793-0.6776 confluence zone

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Move beyond 50% Fibo. sets the stage for further gains
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The RBNZ confirmed a 25-basis-point rate raise, which had been widely anticipated and already factored into the markets. The NZD, however, did not benefit from the boost...

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NZD/USD pares intraday gains, up little around 0.6915-20 area
NZD/USD pares intraday gains, up little around 0.6915-20 area

The risk-on impulse provided a modest boost to the perceived riskier kiwi on Thursday. Hawkish Fed expectations acted as a tailwind for the USD and capped gains for the pair...

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The Kiwi is falling
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