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NZDUSD attempts to restore positive sentiment


10 July 2020

NZDUSD appears to be strengthening after finding a footing on the 40-period simple moving average (SMA), which may enhance the very short-term neutral-to-bullish picture.

Although the positive momentum in the MACD and the Ichimoku lines has stalled, the rising SMAs, RSI and stochastic oscillator endorse further gains. The RSI is improving after bouncing on the 50 threshold, while the %K line has completed a bullish crossover out of oversold territory, promoting advances.

If buying interest intensifies, early resistance may develop from the upper limiting region of 0.6584 – 0.6600. Overtaking these constrictions to upside moves may accelerate the price towards the 0.6664 high and the 0.6700 handle, achieved in January 2020. Conquering this too, the bulls may turn their focus to the 0.6754 key peak of December 31.

Should the ceiling of the range at 0.6600 halt the climb, initial support could come from the Ichimoku lines and the 40-period SMA underneath at 0.6544. Slightly lower, the Ichimoku cloud, the 0.6500 hurdle and the 100-period SMA at 0.6486 may attempt to keep the positive tone intact. If these barriers fail to do so, sellers may challenge the 200-period SMA at 0.6438 before meeting the foundation of the sideways market (0.6365 – 0.6384). In the event the bears overwhelm the market and steer below the lower bound section, attention may shift towards the 0.6262 trough.

All in all, the very-short-term bias maintains a neutral-to-bullish outlook and a close either above 0.6600 or below 0.6365 may see a clearer direction unfold.

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