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USD/CHF Steadily Declines Towards 0.9100, Market Anticipates Swiss CPI and US PMI Data

2 October 2023 Written by Sandro Pontedra  Finance Industry Expert Sandro Pontedra

The USD/CHF currency pair is witnessing a consistent descent, positioning itself around the 0.9120 mark during the initial phases of European trading sessions on Monday. The pair is succumbing to downward strains predominantly due to optimistic economic indicators emanating from Switzerland and the impending release of Switzerland's Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday.

Insight into Swiss Economic Indicators

The delineation of Swiss Real Retail Sales (YoY) data showcased a more moderate contraction in Swiss consumer demand for August, registering a decline of 1.8%, aligning with market expectations and indicating a favorable improvement from the preceding 2.5% downturn. Moreover, the much-anticipated revelation of Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Tuesday is poised to reflect a growth of 1.8%, escalating from the preceding data of 1.6%.

This forthcoming economic episode is likely to inject significant volatility, recalibrating market dynamics and exerting substantial influence on the oscillations of the Swiss Franc.

Global Economic Context:

The weekend’s economic dispatches from China, manifesting an uptick in the Manufacturing PMI data, have reverberated across currency landscapes, potentially reinforcing the Swiss Franc (CHF), acknowledged universally as a safe-haven currency. The elucidation of China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI for August exceeded anticipations, propelling to 50.2 from the preceding 49.7 and outstripping the market’s median conjecture of 50.0. Concurrently, the Non-Manufacturing PMI amplified to 51.7, surpassing the preceding 51.0 and transcending the aggregated market prognosis of 51.5.

Federal Reserve’s Strategic Posture:

Conversely, the anticipation of the Federal Reserve undertaking an additional enhancement of 25 basis points in interest rates by the year's culmination is fostering a supportive ambiance for the US Dollar (USD). The prevailing market narrative is meticulously integrating the prospective sustenance of elevated interest rates over an extended temporal framework, thereby fortifying the underpinnings of the Greenback.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is maintaining its equilibrium at approximately 106.20 at the moment of inscription, encapsulating the momentum garnered post the dissemination of temperate economic data last Friday.

The index showcased an increment post the favorable adjustment in the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September, and the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) - Price Index for August exhibited an alignment with estimations, highlighting a nuanced moderation from the prior readings.

Market Stabilization and Upcoming Data:

Furthermore, the trajectory of US Treasury Yields is converging to accentuate the consolidation of the USD. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is currently delineated at 4.61%, indicative of a 0.96% augmentation. Subsequent to Friday's legislative sessions, resolutions were materialized, forestalling a governmental cessation and ensuring fiscal allocations until November 17, engendering a revitalized ascension in the US Dollar Index (DXY). Such legislative accomplishments are instrumental in engendering financial market stability and enhancing investor fidelity in the USD.

Market participants are poised to closely scrutinize the impending disclosure of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for September and the articulations by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday. These imminent revelations and dialogues are anticipated to shape the market sentiment, offering insights into the prospective directional tendencies of the USD/CHF pairing in this intricate economic landscape.


The intricate interplay between the Swiss economic indicators, global economic developments, and the strategic orientations of the Federal Reserve is creating a nuanced market environment for the USD/CHF pair. As traders and investors align their positions with these multifaceted developments, the upcoming economic releases and policy insights are likely to offer pivotal directional cues, impacting the dynamics and trajectory of the currency pair in the global financial markets.

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