HFM information and reviews
HFM
96%
FXCC information and reviews
FXCC
92%
FxPro information and reviews
FxPro
89%
FBS information and reviews
FBS
88%
XM information and reviews
XM
86%
Exness information and reviews
Exness
86%

Coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic possible scenarios


Epidemiologists at the University of Minnesota continue to do their research on Coronavirus COVID-19. They recently published a report in which they presented three possible scenarios for COVID-19. The scenarios presented by scientists resemble waves of varying degrees of strength. Each scenario can be implemented until 2022. It is expected that by this time a COVID-19 vaccine should appear to vaccinate hundreds of millions of people.

Scientists at the University of Minnesota guided by leading epidemiologist Michael Osterholm, recently published a report on how they see the future of Covid 19.

All the three COVID-19 pandemic scenarios agree on the following: there is almost no probability that the pandemic will end in 2020. The reason for this forecast is the same as when the virus has first appeared - the lack of immunity in 50% of the world’s population. Nowadays the world is far from this value, Dr. Osterholm, the head of the study, believes. According to his estimates, less than 5% of the world's population is insured against having the coronavirus again, since people received antibodies.

There are still a lot of unknowns in COVID-19. When scientists were first asked what could happen if the coronavirus is not restrained, only a week has passed since the quarantine beginning in Wuhan, China. At that time only 10000 cases of the disease occurred in the world, and in only one patient who visited Wuhan was identified the United States. But even then, scientists were unanimous: it will not be possible to stop the pandemic.

A person who has antibodies to COVID-19 can still be a carrier of coronavirus infection. According to experts, there are two classes of antibodies - immune cells produced in the human body as a result of its contact with the virus.

Thus, the presence of a positive IgG test result does not give any benefits - absolutely everyone should use personal protective equipment during a pandemic: infected and uninfected, sick and already recovered from COVID-19.

Even in the presence of a new coronavirus infection typical symptoms, in some cases the test for COVID-19 may be negative. This may be due to the quality of the biological material collected, the sensitivity of the test system used, or the timing of the analysis - the virus may be detected at the beginning of the disease and may not be detected at later stages. At the same time, a general blood test may be within normal limits for mild forms of the disease, even if the virus is detected.”

Scenario one: at the right time for the tides and flows


In such a scenario, the Covid-19 wave will peak and fall, peak again and fall during the next two years. Peaks of the disease will be approximately half of the spring 2020 outbreak, with the highest “crests” of the wave coinciding with the peak of seasonal flu. These factors will vary, depending on random outbreaks and the inability to track new foci of decease before they erupt.

The probability of such wave surges is due to the consensus that the coronavirus COVID-19 has some seasonality and neither hot nor cold weather will destroy it. Biologist Martha Shocket of the University of California explains that scientists are unanimous that weather is unlikely to suppress the virus this summer, and we will have a large population of people susceptible to the coronavirus.

Although summer heat and moisture can kill the virus on the surface, there will still be a huge number of people who will transmit it to each other through coughing, runny nose and simple communication with each other. But there is good news. In the summer, virus transmission may decrease by 20%, Mark Lipsich, epidemiologist from Harvard, says. He helped colleagues from Minnesota develop a scenario for the possible spread of the coronavirus COVID-19.

In the summer, the number of cases of infection from Covid 19 "mini-waves" may decrease by more than 20%, scientists from the University of Minnesota concluded. This means that restaurants and beaches can be opened, but large gatherings of people in closed spaces will be banned, and people should voluntarily practice social distance. A mask and gloves will become the same familiar attribute as a mobile phone. When the wave subsides, people will feel more confident, sometimes giving up precautions. Everything will be going on until they are covered by the next wave of COVID-19 pandemic and they either gain herd immunity or wait for the vaccine.

Scenario Two: History Repeats


March 1918 brought the first moderate wave of Spanish flu. Cases of the disease went down, but six months later, in the autumn, there was an outbreak of the epidemic. More than 50 million people became victims of the flu. Small peaks followed in early 1919, and the pandemic finally ended. The 1957 and 1958 influenza pandemics, as well as the 2009 swine flu, had a similar picture. In this scenario, scientists suggest that mortality can reach hundreds of thousands of cases by early August 2020 with millions of deceased.

After this catastrophic second wave, the "sea" will be almost calm, and the number of cases will be only one fifth of what spring 2020 saw. In this scenario, instead of appearing in the form of waves during the year, Covid-19 will peak at the end of summer and fall, and then subside and show a small but constant number of deceased cases.

A steep peak and a long fall will have two reasons. Firstly, with a current moderate first wave and a giant second wave, which will peak in October 2020, so many people will be infected that the population is already approaching gaining collective immunity. At the same time, the second wave of COVID-19, according to Osterholm, "will completely destroy the global health care system."

Scenario Three: The Worst Groundhog Days


Outbreaks of the disease will continue in different cities and people will be simply trying to suppress them with varying degrees of success. The epidemiologist professor Osterholm calls this the “slow burn” scenario.

The foci of the disease continue to flare up here and there, however, they will be smaller than in the second scenario with its monstrous wave of infections. Therefore, more time is required for the formation of the collective immunity of the population. Local outbreaks will occur, which can be stronger in some places than in the other ones.

This is due, in particular, to the ability to conduct large-scale regular testing and track patients’ contacts. Not a single viral disease developed this way before, but this scenario cannot be ruled out in the situation with COVID-19.

But which of the three scenarios is most likely? Professor Osterholm of the University of Minnesota does not know the answer to this question. "This virus has its own schedule. But we will have difficult months ahead."

COVID-19: “tug of war” game


Under these conditions, the main thing for society will be what the epidemiologist Gabriel Lang of the University of Hong Kong called the tripartite “tug of war” game among the three competing factors: supporting low morbidity and mortality, preserving jobs and emotional well-being of people. If part of the “tug of war” game in public health is weakened, the waves will continue until the end of 2022.

Author: Kate Solano for Forex-Ratings.com

RELATED

Libertex: How to invest in crude oil

Crude oil prices are affected by perceived shortages, excess supply and weather conditions, among other things. In addition, the price of oil is often considered one of the main benchmarks...

Bonds in 2023: Deep Dive into 7 Essential Bond Types for Investors

In the world of investment, bonds stand as one of the cornerstones, allowing entities, whether corporate or governmental, to secure funds over an agreed duration...

How Does Cryptocurrecy Work?

When Bitcoin came along, it introduced a whole new world of digital currencies that are powered by various technologies, such as blockchain and cryptography...

3 Tips on How to Take Advantage of Volatile Markets

What’s your first reaction when market prices suddenly go tumbling down or climb up? In any case, as a trader, you’ve probably experienced market volatility in a number of situations...

Ethereum: Will ETH Break Above $2000?

The recent spike in the crypto prices has coincided with the strongest period for the cryptocurrency and blockchain market since the end of 2018. Since December 2020...

Mastering Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Market Dynamics

Navigating the financial markets successfully is a complex task that requires a deep understanding of market dynamics. This guide aims to demystify key concepts such as market trends...

How to Invest in Apple with Libertex

Regardless of which side you fall on in the great Apple vs Android debate, the impact Apple has had on the world of technology cannot be denied. Nor can its high performance...

Is It The End Of The Cryptocurrency Bull Run?

A recent selloff across the cryptocurrency market has turned greed to fear, and in a flash nearly a trillion in value was wiped out from the market cap of cryptocurrencies...

Exploring The Limitations Of Fundamental Analysis: A Comprehensive Perspective

Fundamental analysis is a method used to evaluate securities by examining the underlying factors that influence their intrinsic value. It involves analyzing both qualitative...

Top Tech Trends of the Future for Trading

Tech development impacts our daily lives as well as traders’ profits. Technologies change rapidly, creating new opportunities in everyday routine and the stock market...

Secrets of trading in the Asian session

Practically every trader knows that the particular dynamics of the pricing of financial instruments depends not only on the selected asset, but also...

Volume Indicators. On-balance-volume

Volume indicators provide a very different kind of indicator because, instead of relying solely on the price, they take volume into account. Prices tell you in which direction an investment is moving...

How to identify breakout stocks

As we all know, the price movement of any asset is determined by supply and demand. Demand and supply for an asset depend on many factors, which can be divided into three broad categories...

Ten Tips to becoming a Forex Trader

Getting started in forex has never been simpler. Easier access to currency markets and brokerage platforms that fit a range of trading needs has become widely prevalent...

What is Short Selling (Shorting) and How Does It Work Exactly?

You might have heard the term "shorting" a stock, referring to traders and speculators being able to create market opportunities when the price of an asset falls. There might be times when...

Is Ripple a good investment and can you profit on XRP in 2020?

Cryptocurrency trading has become a big business and is extremely popular for people just entering into the trading space, as well as for major institutional traders...

Best ways to invest in cryptocurrency

Cryptocurrencies have emerged as one of the most exciting new tradable asset classes in the world. What many investors don’t know, however, is that there are more...

Investing vs trading cryptocurrency: What's right for you?

People often mistake investing and trading for the same thing. However, they are very different and each has its own characteristics when it comes to crypto...

How to Amplify Earning With Margin Trading?

Leverage is the practice of using an amount of debt or borrowed capital to take a position in an investment, finance a project, or fund a business and...

Trading in a Kimono or What Nikkei 225 Is

CFD trading in the stock market offers excellent opportunities for making money online. Moreover, unlike investors, a trader can make a profit not...

Vantage information and reviews
Vantage
85%
FP Markets information and reviews
FP Markets
81%
IronFX information and reviews
IronFX
77%
T4Trade information and reviews
T4Trade
76%
Just2Trade information and reviews
Just2Trade
76%
FXNovus information and reviews
FXNovus
75%

© 2006-2025 Forex-Ratings.com

The usage of this website constitutes acceptance of the following legal information.
Any contracts of financial instruments offered to conclude bear high risks and may result in the full loss of the deposited funds. Prior to making transactions one should get acquainted with the risks to which they relate. All the information featured on the website (reviews, brokers' news, comments, analysis, quotes, forecasts or other information materials provided by Forex Ratings, as well as information provided by the partners), including graphical information about the forex companies, brokers and dealing desks, is intended solely for informational purposes, is not a means of advertising them, and doesn't imply direct instructions for investing. Forex Ratings shall not be liable for any loss, including unlimited loss of funds, which may arise directly or indirectly from the usage of this information. The editorial staff of the website does not bear any responsibility whatsoever for the content of the comments or reviews made by the site users about the forex companies. The entire responsibility for the contents rests with the commentators. Reprint of the materials is available only with the permission of the editorial staff.
We use cookies to improve your experience and to make your stay with us more comfortable. By using Forex-Ratings.com website you agree to the cookies policy.