The AUD/USD pair is trading upward on Tuesday morning, and possibly for now it will retain a small potential for growth and stabilization. Although this movement can hardly be called growth - rather, recovery, rebound, no more. The AUD/USD pair is not trading around the level of 0.6980, which appeared this morning in response to the statistics of China.
This week China will publish several important releases for the currency market. The first has already come out. The data showed that the trade surplus of China has increased markedly in August. That's good: balance surplus is always better deficit. The trade balance for August was $ 60.24 billion against expectations of $48.2 billion. Export parameters improved markedly: the indicator of export of goods and services turned out to be at the level of -5.5% y/y against the previous value of -8.3% y/y. Do not be put off by negative values: in the current circumstances it is normal.
Imports, at the same time, worsened their position in August and amounted to -13.8% y/y against the July level -8.1% y/y.
Ahead are reports on industry and inflation in China, and they also give important market signals. Yesterday China reported deterioration of expectations for the growth of the economy in 2015, reducing the GDP forecast to 7.3% from 7.4%. Naturally, not many are happy about this, because the Chinese economy is too big to its problems to remain in the shadows. However, today the country's Central Bank said that the period of increased turbulence of the markets is almost over, and ahead are is only stabilization and improvement. I would like to believe it, but at the moment it is not very easy to do so.
For the Australian dollar any strong signal on the part of China is positive, because the Celestial Empire remains the key trading partner of Australia.
