The US dollar index is trading near 103.00. Yesterday, the minutes of the last Fed meeting were published. They revealed that there is no consensus on the pace of further rate hikes among the voting members. Most of them support the idea that everything will depend on macroeconomic data, in particular on the labor market and inflation. The ADP report on the US labor market will be published today. According to forecasts, the statistics will disappoint, which may put pressure on the dollar. In addition, the ISM services index will be released. Let’s recall that the manufacturing sector data published at the beginning of the week caused the weakening of the dollar. If these statistics are also worse than expected, the dollar will resume its decline.
SELL STOP 102.70/TP 102.20/SL 102.90
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair is consolidating near 1.2700. Published yesterday, the index of business activity in the service sector for July fell from 54.0 points to 52.8 points. Despite this, the indicator remained in the growth zone. It is worth noting the recent comments of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who admitted yesterday that inflation in the country turned out to be more stable than expected, but the measures taken by the government and the regulator were correct. Market participants saw this as a signal of the Bank of England’s readiness to continue the fight against inflation by tightening the national monetary policy. It is expected that by the end of the summer the regulator may once again raise the rate by 50 basis points. Against this backdrop, the growth of the GBP/USD pair may continue.
BUY STOP 1.2720/TP 1.2790/SL 1.2700
BRENT
Brent crude is trading at $76.30. Positive dynamics is supported by the announcement of additional oil output cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. It is expected that these measures may cause supply shortages in the global market. Today data on US oil inventories will be released by the Energy Information Administration. According to forecasts, oil inventories could have fallen by 9 million barrels last week. A report from the American Petroleum Institute showed that inventories fell by 4.3 million last week. If the expectations are confirmed, Brent will move even closer to the $80 target.
BUY STOP 76.50/TP 78.50/SL 76.00
