The US dollar index is growing slightly and is trading at 101.40. In the focus of investors’ attention is the publication of the US labor market and gross domestic product (GDP) data. Thus, the number of initial jobless claims over the past week amounted to 230 thousand, which is less than the previous figure of 246 thousand. It is worth noting that the labor market remains stable, despite the growing economic problems and pressure from the high interest rate of the US Federal Reserve. As for the GDP, it came out pessimistic. According to preliminary data, in the first quarter of this year, the US economy expanded by only 1.1% instead of the expected 2%. The weak GDP report raised the possibility that next week’s decision to raise the rate by 25 basis points will be the last in the current cycle. Given the above, the decline in the dollar index may resume.
SELL STOP 101.30/TP 100.50/SL 101.60
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair is consolidating slightly above 1.10. Yesterday, weak data on the Eurozone consumer confidence was published. The index rose from 99.2 points to 99.3 points in April instead of the expected increase to 99.9 points. Experts note that the economic recovery in the consumer sector, as well as in retail and services, is offset by a decline in industrial production. Services sector companies hope for further improvement in the economic situation, while those in the manufacturing sector fear that its position will worsen due to a decrease in orders. It’s also worth noting that European consumers and business representatives expect further decline in inflation in the Eurozone. In this regard, the European Central Bank will raise rates again next week, which could provide additional support for the euro.
BUY STOP 1.1030/TP 1.1100/SL 1.1000
WTI
WTI oil is consolidating near $75. Pressure on quotes is still exerted by the US recession concerns, which could lead to a drop in demand for fuel and oil products. An earlier report from the Energy Information Administration showed a decrease in US oil reserves by 5.054 million barrels, gasoline – by 2.408 million barrels, and distillates – by 0.081 million barrels. Despite this, the statistics did not have any effect on oil prices. In addition, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the day before that the group of leading oil producers OPEC+ does not yet see the need for further production cuts. Given the continued pessimism in the market, the recommendation is to keep short positions in oil.
SELL STOP 75.00/TP 73.00/SL 75.70