The EUR/USD pair is consolidating near 1.0900. Investors analyze preliminary inflation data in the eurozone. According to the report, in June core inflation increased from 5.3% to 5.4% year over year. The downward trend in inflation continues, but the risks of a new acceleration in price growth are still there as the labor market remains strong and the unemployment rate is at historical lows. In other words, there is a high probability that the European regulator will again raise the rate at the next meetings. This was also confirmed last week by ECB President Christine Lagarde and chief economist Philip Lane. Given the prospect of further policy tightening, the growth of the euro can continue.
BUY STOP 1.0910/TP 1.1000/SL 1.0880
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair is holding near 0.6650. On Friday, May data on lending in Australia was published. Mortgage lending increased by 0.3%, which is somewhat less than the April increase of 0.4%. We also note the results of a survey of leading economists on the further actions of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), conducted by Reuters. Most respondents believe that this week the regulator will still raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.35%. The first reaction of the AUD/USD pair to the regulator’s decision may help the Australian dollar renew local highs and test the resistance of 0.6700. Buyers of the AUD/USD pair are also supported by a local decline in the US dollar.
BUY STOP 0.6670/TP 0.6730/SL 0.6650
BRENT
Brent oil updates local highs and is trading at 75.50. Prices were supported by data on US GDP, which rose 2.0% in the first quarter against the forecast of 1.4%. Economic growth reduced the likelihood of a recession in the US. In addition, investors were encouraged by Friday’s data on the personal consumption expenditures price index in the US, which confirmed the continuation of the trend towards easing inflationary pressure, which may allow the monetary authorities to abandon their intention to raise interest rates again. The decision of Saudi Arabia to cut oil production by 1 million barrels, which came into force on July 1, was another driver. Given the above, the rise in oil prices may continue.
BUY STOP 75.50/TP 77.50/SL 74.90