Written by US assets benefit from improved risk appetite
Dollar assets have started the week on the front foot, benefiting from improved risk appetite. Specifically, the weekend’s US-EU trade agreement appears to have boosted the greenback's appeal, with euro/dollar quickly dropping below 1.1550 at the time of writing, fully erasing the rally recorded since mid-July. This dollar strength is also evident against both risk-on and safe haven currencies, with dollar/yen climbing above the key 146.48-147.72 area again. Similarly, US equity indices are on the run again, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 indices extending their ongoing rallies.
Meanwhile, company earnings are slowly picking up with Visa reporting today, offering updated evidence on the current financial condition of US consumers. The focus, though, is already on Wednesday’s (Microsoft, Meta) and Thursday’s (Apple, Amazon) tech earnings results. A strong set of figures could further boost US stocks, supporting the currently upgraded bullish year-end targets from key investment banks.
The prime victim of the current momentum is gold, which has quickly retreated from its one-month high of $3,439. It is currently testing the 50-day simple moving average at $3,323, with the next key support level seen at $3,260. Only oil appears to be unaffected by the current improvement in risk appetite despite the small upleg following Trump’s comments about setting a new deadline for a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire. Oil continues to trade within the $65-69 range, awaiting this week’s key growth, PCE and jobs data from the US.
Second thoughts from Europeans about the US-EU agreement
Interestingly, one of the key factors for this US equity rally - the US-EU trade deal - is the main reason why European equities and the euro are underperforming this week. The initial satisfaction with the swift deal and the avoidance of a full-blown trade war has been replaced by growing discontent about the 15% tariff level and the accompanying details. The EU has agreed to purchase $750bn worth of energy over the next three years, aiming to replace Russian gas with the much more expensive US LNG, and to invest $600bn in the US.
However, both figures appear to be heavily inflated in order to please the US President. Specifically, the agreed energy purchases far exceed the EU’s current annual energy purchases from the US; unless growth increases exponentially, the EU is unlikely to meet this target. Similarly, the $600bn investment has to come from the private sector, over which the EU has limited control. Hence, there are legitimate questions about the feasibility of both commitments.
Therefore, discontent from both France and Germany is intensifying, partly because they were excluded from the final negotiations. German Chancellor Merz has already stated that tariffs present a significant burden on the German economy, and Michel Barnier, former French PM and the chief EU negotiator for Brexit, has described the deal as a bad compromise that does not contribute to the long-term wellbeing of both regions. European leaders are clearly not happy about the deal, but are they ready to cancel the agreement and risk facing a 30% tariff going forward?
August 1 tariff deadline is approaching
With the key trade deals out of the way and another extension to the US-China negotiations looking extremely likely, the US administration is preparing for the August 1 deadline of the reciprocal tariffs' extension. Certain countries, such as Canada, are frantically trying to seal a deal and avoid facing increased tariffs. The remaining countries will face a “world tariff”, which will probably be somewhere in the 15-20% range, if Trump is feeling generous.
A light calendar today
With investors already counting down to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and the preliminary Q2 GDP reports from the EU and the US, today’s calendar is rather quiet. US housing data and the important Consumer Confidence index could prove market-moving. In the meantime, the 7-year US Treasury auction could disappoint following the announcement that borrowing for the July-September period will reach $1.01 trillion, with the increase coming primarily from T-bill issuance.
By XM.com
