Written by Escalating US Trade War Fears
The market is bracing for a new wave of US tariffs, including a 25% levy on foreign car imports, set to take effect on April 2. These measures signal an aggressive escalation in global trade tensions, spooking investors and driving demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Uncertainty oEscver the economic fallout keeps buyers flocking to the precious metal.
Strong Central Bank Demand
Global central banks continue to stockpile gold, reinforcing its role as a reserve asset. This institutional buying provides a solid floor for prices.
Fed Rate Cuts on the Horizon
While the Fed is expected to cut rates only twice in 2025, gold’s momentum is overshadowing concerns about high interest rates. Traditionally, gold thrives when borrowing costs decline (since it doesn’t yield interest). However, safe-haven demand is now outweighing rate expectations, keeping the rally intact.
With 15 record highs already this year, gold’s upward trajectory shows no signs of slowing.
On the H4 chart of XAU/USD, the market formed a compact consolidation range around the level of 3074 and with the upside exit executed a growth wave to the level of 3125. Today we expect the correction to develop to the level of 3074 (test from above). In the future it is not excluded another growth link to the level of 3151. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is above the zero level and is directed strictly upwards.
Technical analysis of XAU/USD
On the H1 chart of XAU/USD the market has fulfilled the local target of the growth wave at the level of 3125. At the moment the market is forming a downward impulse. Today we consider the probability of correction up to 3074. After completion of this correction, we will consider the probability of development of a growth link up to the level of 3151. Technically such scenario is confirmed by Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is above the level of 80 and is directed strictly downwards to the level of 20.
Gold’s record-breaking rally is backed by trade war risks, central bank demand, and shifting Fed expectations. While a short-term correction is possible, the broader trend remains firmly bullish, with $3,151 as the next key target.
