FXTM information and reviews
FXTM
93%
IronFX information and reviews
IronFX
92%
Libertex information and reviews
Libertex
91%
ETX Capital information and reviews
ETX Capital
90%
FxPro information and reviews
FxPro
88%
OctaFX information and reviews
OctaFX
86%
EUR/USD
1.1876
GBP/USD
1.3894
USD/JPY
109.2158
USD/CHF
0.905
USD/CAD
1.2509
EUR/JPY
129.7035

Strategy session: Why momentum is a short-term traders best weapon


We can approach trading in a very similar vein as many do in Blackjack or how a casino operates, in that we can think in probabilities and potentially forge, and exploit an edge. Casinos have a small edge in each game and with a big enough sample they can exploit that – trading is no different.

To create an edge, we need a process – a repertoire from getting set-up at the workstation, right through to documentation and review of our trading activity. The strategy one utilises within the trading process is one that I will touch on here, as it's the single biggest factor that retail and pro traders focus on in their quest to become consistently profitable.

Arguably the two strategies which I've found to help push the odds in a client’s favour, especially when dealing in CFDs – one of the best trading vehicles for capturing short-term movement in price, long or short, across a broad range of markets, are momentum and mean reversion strategies.

Momentum trading is by far the more intuitive strategy though, so I will offer context here. Short-term trading is primarily focused on trying to profit from the aggregation of flow, be it investment, hedging, or the offshore demand for goods and services, much of which isn't immediately obvious or easy to track. Price action blends all of these factors and is the final arbiter. So, by aligning our bias to the flow of capital and the tape seen on the charts, we can give our trading an advantage.

Newton’s First Law of Motion states that ‘a body in motion stays in motion’ and that's the crux of momentum trading. Obviously, we want to assess if a move is overly stretched, extreme or mature, but when capital is moving in one direction and buyers are prepared to pay higher prices (and vice versa) the idea is to jump on that move – for me, regardless of timeframe, going with a move, especially one that is impulsive with increased range expansion (in the candle) helps swing the odds in your favour. It can make trading far simpler.

The rate of change (ROC) is one of the best momentum indicators traders can use. However, to maintain discipline one overview I start with within my strategy is a basic momentum and trend model – this is one we put out to clients (reach out for more details) and can help you see the aggregation and flow of capital, even before the laborious scanning of the multitude of charts. It can be used on any market.

The model

The logic

I don’t use ROC in this model, but I'm looking for agreement on three other variables – if the price is above the 5 and 20-day exponential moving average, the pivot point, and the 14-day RSI above 60, I take a bullish bias – this is filled green in the instrument column. If the price is below both moving averages, the pivot point and the RSI is below 40, I hold a bearish bias (denoted by the pink fill). Any conflict and I am neutral.

If the model suggests a bullish stance and the current daily candle is green, I can take the timeframe into 5 or 15 minutes and look at momentum scalping strategies – but these ultra-short-term trades should only be traded from the long side. Again, the same is true on short bias, where I can look at short positions within lower timeframes.

This model can be great for fundamental traders too, as it shows whether the market agrees with your view – for example, if I feel that OPEC may increase production (and I don’t think it's priced) and we’re in for a period of drawdown in Spot Crude, but the oil market is pushing higher, it suggests a low probability outcome for short positions. Or, if I feel Gold is about to rip higher and the matrix also shares this view, I can have a higher conviction on the trade – agreement is good.

The data in table above is sourced straight from MT4/MT5 using the excel RTD expert advisor. One of the many tools within the trading platform offering, that can help traders of all strategies and timeframes get an advantage when using technical or price action analysis.

Obviously, this is just an overview, but it can help with timing the market where being early on a view can be costly - and we'll always need to look at the set-up and assess our risk and position size. But, at a basic level by looking at factors that show the trend and momentum behind the move we can structure part of our process that can genuinely get us an edge in trading and a positive expectancy. 

#source

Related

Best Forex Trading Patterns: Different Shapes, Common Signals

What do traders use to predict the price direction? Technical indicators, candlesticks, and of course, chart patterns. Overall, there are many trading patterns that occur...

FTSE 100 Predictions for 2021 and Beyond

Stock market returns in 2020 were eerily similar to what happened in 2009. We're seeing some strength emerging from a deep stock market recession. Even though...

The Ultimate Guide to the Best Forex Candlestick Patterns

Trading Forex is a complex game that absorbs a lot of time and requires psychological endurance and vast knowledge of all aspects of the art of price prediction...

Technical analysis: Beginners Guide

By definition, technical analysis is the forecasting of the future price action of an underlying financial asset based on its past price behaviour. Essentially, technical...

Bullish vs. Bearish Market: How to Distinguish

In trading, you should focus not only on learning new strategies and indicators but also on discovering the terms that are widely used within the trading community. This will help...

How to take your Forex trading to the next level

The Forex market is one of the most volatile and lucrative markets in the trading landscape. Worth an absolutely unfathomable $6.5+ trillion a day, it dwarfs...


Editors' Picks

© 2006-2021 Forex-Ratings.com

The usage of this website constitutes acceptance of the following legal information.
Any contracts of financial instruments offered to conclude bear high risks and may result in the full loss of the deposited funds. Prior to making transactions one should get acquainted with the risks to which they relate. All the information featured on the website (reviews, brokers' news, comments, analysis, quotes, forecasts or other information materials provided by Forex Ratings, as well as information provided by the partners), including graphical information about the forex companies, brokers and dealing desks, is intended solely for informational purposes, is not a means of advertising them, and doesn't imply direct instructions for investing. Forex Ratings shall not be liable for any loss, including unlimited loss of funds, which may arise directly or indirectly from the usage of this information. The editorial staff of the website does not bear any responsibility whatsoever for the content of the comments or reviews made by the site users about the forex companies. The entire responsibility for the contents rests with the commentators. Reprint of the materials is available only with the permission of the editorial staff.
We use cookies to improve your experience and to make your stay with us more comfortable. By using Forex-Ratings.com website you agree to the cookies policy.