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USDJPY directs lower but positive tone endures


19 May 2021

USDJPY is gaining some traction off the mid-Bollinger band at 108.87, near a supportive trend line drawn from the 102.58 low. The fresh deflection in the price off the upper Bollinger band may have recently curbed additional developments past the 110.00 border; however, sellers seem to currently lack the necessary backing to shift sentiment to the downside.

Although the short-term oscillators are slightly favouring price advances, they are presently transmitting conflicting signals in directional momentum. The MACD is holding a tad above zero and its red trigger line, while the upward pointing RSI appears set to improve its bounce off the 50 level. The negatively charged stochastic oscillator is reflecting price’s pullback and has yet to indicate a rise in positive impetus for the pair.

If the pair successfully forms a strong foothold off the mid-Bollinger band at 108.87 and oversteps the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 109.12, tough upside constraints may originate from the 109.69-109.95 section, which also contains the upper Bollinger band. Navigating beyond the 110.00 handle could then propel the price towards a durable area of resistance between the 110.74 barrier and the 1-year high of 110.96. Triumphing over this too could encourage buyers to challenge the 111.71 peak, reached in March 2020.

Otherwise, if price does not adhere to the ascending trend line around 108.70, early support could arise from the 108.33 neighbouring low. Diving from here, the lower Bollinger band around 107.89 and the 107.47 border beneath may attempt to dismiss a deeper decline from evolving. Should sellers then continue to lead the pair below the vital trough of 107.47, downside limitations could concur around the 100-day SMA at 107.17 and the adjoining 106.94-107.04 support boundary.

Summarizing, USDJPY is maintaining a bullish tone above the diagonal support. Moreover, bearish tendencies would need to break below the 107.47 trough to significantly gain an upper hand.

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