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USD & JPY on Bid as Risk Off Raises its Head


8 July 2021

USD at 3-month highs, Bonds rallied/Yields dived, Nasdaq & S&P hit another ATH. Seem familiar? FOMC minutes showed "Hawkish Tilt" & some members  up for tapering as early as this year – conditions could be “met somewhat earlier than  anticipated”. Asian equities down as risk off bites on Virus spikes, with  Sydney, Indonesia and South Korea mixed. USDIndex up to 92.82 yesterday – 92.70 now, EUR slips under 1.1800, JPY down to 110.25 & Cable under 1.3800 at 1.3775. Gold holds $1800, down from $1808, USOil down again at $71.15 now; what next for OPEC? 10yr yields dived under 1.300%.

Overnight – RBA’s Lowe acknowledged QE will be required for  foreseeable future, strong UK housing data, better data from JPY & German Trade balance missed expectations. Week Ahead – FOMC Minutes, RBA Rate Decision, ECB Growth Forecasts & Special Strategy Meeting.  

European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is higher, the 30-year outperforming, similar to developments in US futures. Yields continue to fall and curves flatten as markets adjust their tapering and central bank expectations amid the realization that the initial bounce back in activity is starting to level off –  high levels and  capacity constraints limiting the scope for a further acceleration in growth. In cash markets the US 10-year rate dropped back a further -1.2 bp to just 1.304%, and the German 10-year is set to fall further below the -0.3% mark. DAX and FTSE100 futures meanwhile are down -0.1% and -0.4% respectively and US futures are also in the red.

Today – ECB Minutes, Strategy Review Announcement and Lagarde Press Conference, US Initial & Continuing Unemployment Claims.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.96%). Rallied to 78.00 highs yesterday before closing at 77.60. Move lower today on JPY bid, under 77.00. Faster MAs aligned lower, RSI 26.70 OS and still falling rising, MACD signal line & histogram remain significantly below 0 line & falling. H1 ATR 0.0015, Daily ATR 0.0065.

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