As Week 41 unfolds, market participants have their eyes set on the dynamic interplay between economic indicators and geopolitical events, with special focus on USOIL and XAUUSD. Let's delve into the week's anticipated data releases and their potential impact on these assets. Stay abreast of live XAU price movements by registering on the Exness Trading Terminal. With no hassles of downloads or installations, real-time market monitoring is at your fingertips.
Key Economic Releases to Watch
- German Inflation Data: Scheduled for a Wednesday 06:00 AM GMT release, the consensus points to a September drop to 1.6% from the prior 4.5%. A significant decline in this metric could sway the EUR pairs.
- US Producer Price Index (PPI): Coming out on Wednesday at 12:30 PM GMT, a predicted downtick to 0.3% from 0.7% is awaited. This could foreshadow subdued inflationary pressures in the coming periods.
- Federal Reserve Minutes: The financial community will keenly dissect the FOMC's meeting minutes on Wednesday. The prevailing sentiment suggests an 80% probability of a rate pause. However, indications of an impending rate hike could steer markets significantly.
- British GDP: Expected to show a considerable uptick to 0.7% month-over-month from August’s 0.2%, this Thursday 06:00 AM GMT release could be a game-changer for GBP instruments, especially if the numbers defy expectations.
- US Inflation Rate: Due Thursday at 12:30 PM GMT, a slight moderation to 3.6% from 3.7% is anticipated year-over-year. Paralleling this forecast, we might observe a weakening USD and a rebound in other asset classes like equities and gold.
USOIL Dynamics: The Geopolitical Undertones
Recent geopolitical developments, specifically the Hamas-induced attacks on Israel, have catapulted crude oil prices to $89 per barrel. This scenario underscores the fragile equilibrium of the Middle East and the subsequent repercussions on oil production. Heightened tensions have ratcheted up fears of persistent elevated oil prices and spiraling inflation. The Israeli-Hamas conflict could further tighten the noose around Iranian oil due to stricter sanction implementations, thereby denting the global oil supply.
If the US intensifies sanctions on Iranian exports, especially if Iran’s complicity in the attacks is established, Brent oil might even breach the $100-per-barrel threshold. The charts depict a break below a previously dominant bullish trajectory, with the current price nestled within a formidable resistance cluster. A surge past the $86 mark might pave the way for testing resistance around $93, given its historical significance in 2022's latter months.
Gold’s Flight Amidst Uncertainty
The Israel-Hamas military standoff has lent gold a significant boost, clocking over a 1% jump on Monday. Such geopolitical turbulence often propels investors towards traditional safe havens like gold. Yet, looming US interest rate hikes might temper gold's bullish fervor. With pivotal inflationary data and US central bank minutes on the horizon, investors remain on tenterhooks.
Gold's technicals portray a recent upward correction, buttressed by the lower Bollinger band and the pivotal $1,810 level. The ongoing tussle at the $1,850 resistance, marked by the daily Fibonacci's 50% level, is pivotal. A breach here might usher in bullish momentum towards the formidable $1,900 resistance zone.
