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US inflation data due and Bitcoin rises from 2 year low

11 November 2022

Gold is holding over 1700 paring modest losses from the previous session, as the USD heads southwards and as attention turns to today’s inflation report. Expectations are for consumer prices to cool further in October. Core CPI, which had continued climbing until September, is expected to ease slightly in October to 6.5%, down from 6.6%, a 40-year high. A cooler core inflation print could support the view that the Fed will hike by 50 basis points in December rather than 75bps. Speculation of a smaller rate hike could support gold prices ahead of the December interest rate meeting on 14th of next month. However, any signs of inflation still rising could see the Fed stick with a more aggressive approach.

Powell said in the November meeting that it was still very premature to talk about pausing hikes. A stronger inflation print could see gold fall.

Where might the Gold price head to?

Sellers defended the 2022 low of 1616 and Gold rebounded above the 20 & 50 sma and the falling trendline dating back to March. This and the RSI over 50 could keep buyers hopeful of further upside. A rise over 1730, the October higher, could open the door to 1735, the September high, and 1765 the August 26 high. Sellers could look for a move below 1674, the 50 sma and 1658 the 20 sma to open the door to 1616.

BTC/USD rises from the brink

BTC/USD rebounds from a two-year low after several days of hard selling. After hitting a low of 15574 yesterday, Bitcoin trades 5% higher as attention remains on the FTX saga. FTT trades around $2 after trading at $25 a week earlier. The sell-off came amid liquidity concerns in the market and as Binance pulled out of the FTX emergency deal to rescue the FTX exchange. Fears that FTX’s troubles could spread across the crypto space sent cryptocurrencies across the board significantly lower, and the mood certainly remains fragile even as prices rise today. 

NIO Q3 earnings preview

NIO delivered 31,607 vehicles in Q3, up around 30% from the same period a year earlier and a record high for the EV maker. This was also up sequentially from 25,000 in Q2. Margins are expected to be a key focus as the inflationary environment has meant costs are rising and margins are being squeezed. Expectations are for margins to tighten to 14.9% from 20% a year earlier. Wall Street is expecting a 35% increase in revenue to RMB13.06 billion, and the adjusted loss per ADR is expected to be RMB1.11, down from RMB0.36 a year earlier. Outlook will be key, particularly as COVID cases are rising in China and the zero-COVID policy looks like it could be here to stay.

  1. Support can be found at 8.00 (round number) and 6.70 (July’20 low)
  2. Resistance for the pair can be seen at 10.70 (November high) and 16.75 (October high).

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