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Market Outlook 2023 From Top Banks


9 January 2023

Looking back at 2022, it has been a year filled with turbulent economical events. Here to shed some light on an otherwise foggy economic future, regarding some hotly discussed topics. Although the overall outlook for 2023 may not seem favourable in every aspects, there are still ways to maintain a green portfolio. As Sun Tze said, In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity”.  

#1 Global Recession 

With many global central banks restricting monetary policies in 2022, the fear of recession continues to grow into the new year. 

#2 Labour Market Health 

Labour market health varies between each major economy with some still maintaining healthy levels, while others experience increasing unemployment rates.  

#3 Global Inflation 

The main headline of high inflation in 2022 carries on into the new year with consumer price index in major economies resting high above the central bank’s expectations.  

#4 US Interest Rates 

With Fed Chairman Jerome Powell maintaining interest rate hikes at 50 bps, and the soft landing narrative staying true, interest rates hikes in the US may slow down during the first half of 2023.  

#5 Fed Policy 

Expectations of a Fed pivot in monetary policy is delayed into 2023 as inflation figures within the US remain three-times higher than healthy levels.  

#6 Emerging Markets Outlook 

With the US dollar potentially rising more in value in 2023, other major and minor economies may find it difficult to pay back debt to the US, possibly forcing some of these nations to conduct quantitative easing.  

#7 China’s Economy 

As China’s economy attempts to balance a strict zero-Covid policy with the exponentially growing number of internal Covid cases, the re-opening of China’s economy looks to be murky. 

#8 Europe’s Economy 

With the Eurozone still struggling with high inflation and the ECB aggressively raising rates, the outlook for the Eurozone looks bleak.  

#9 UK’s Economy 

Coupled with political failures and the BoE maintaining a firm hawkish stance, the UK’s economic recovery may take a long time.  

#10 Japan’s Economy 

With BoJ Governor Kuroda considering a switch in Japan’s decade long monetary policy, the future path of the Japanese Yen could change abruptly.  

#11 Housing Market 

The housing market took a hit when the Fed started their aggressive rate hike cycle. As long as the Fed continue to raise rates, the housing market could continue to face downward pressure. 

#12 Dollar Outlook 

With rising interest rates, the dollar continues to find support and create new highs. The Fed continuation of rate hikes could have the potential to bring more strength to the dollar.  

#13 Stock Market Outlook 

In an environment of weak monetary flow, the equity markets within the US have been on a steady decline. Expectations of further bearish movements may extend into the early quarter of 2023.  

#14 Commodity Market Outlook 

Precious metals such as gold and silver may face more downward pressures going into 2023 as demand continues to decline, with safe havens failing to serve as an inflation hedge.  

#source

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