GBPUSD bulls abandoned the difficult battle around February’s ceiling of 1.4235, letting the price tumble below the 1.4100 level. Having breached the 23.6% Fibonacci of the 1.3668 – 1.4250 upleg too, the pair seems to be exposed to additional downside on the four-hour chart in the absence of any nearby obstacles. The momentum indicators are currently backing this narrative as the RSI continues to point downwards in the bearish territory and the MACD is trending southwards in the negative zone.
The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.4026 could provide the next opportunity for a rebound. If they fail to act, the bears could take a breather near the 1.40 mark before speeding towards the 50% Fibonacci of 1.3557. On the upside, a bounce above 1.4160, where the 20- and 50-day SMAs are currently fluctuating, would shift the spotlight back to the 1.4235 hurdle. A close higher would clear the way towards the 2018 top of 1.4375.
Summarizing, GBPUSD is expected to post a negative performance in the near term, with the 200-day and the 1.4026 number likely setting the stage for the next upturn.