Traders don't believe in luck, Octa's survey shows

Octa, a financial broker with globally recognised licences, has conducted a global survey about traders' attitudes to luck called ‘The lucky ones’. Participants answered questions about their attitude to lucky charms, rituals, and other unorthodox practices that helped them succeed in trading. In this article, we will summarise the survey results that shed light on traders' behaviours and beliefs, providing a unique insight into their mindset.

‘The Lucky ones’: a global traders' survey

Octa asked traders from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Nigeria about their attitude to good fortune in trading. The results showed that most traders attribute their profits to continuous learning, extensive hands-on experience, and well-executed strategy rather than the agency of higher powers. However, the survey revealed that various unusual behaviours exist among traders, and it would be wrong to suggest that purely ‘rational’ ideas are the only source of truth in the field.

The average age of ‘The lucky ones’ survey participants varied from 30 in Nigeria to 39 in Malaysia and 42 in Indonesia, while the respondents' trading experience was virtually the same for all regions and amounted to about two years.

In all three focus regions, the share of believers in luck and its attributes was relatively low. In Malaysia, 25% of traders professed to counting on luck in all its forms, as compared with 20% in Nigeria and only 9% in Indonesia. This discrepancy can be explained by obvious differences in cultural background and religious beliefs between the nations.

Out of the three countries covered by the survey, Malaysia comes across as the one where traders are most likely to perform various trading rituals before, during, or after their trading sessions. 10% of Malaysian respondents said they employ such practices regularly and attested to the influence of these rituals on the outcomes of their sessions. It is worth noting that in Indonesia, as opposed to Nigeria and Malaysia, traders who use trading rituals devised them by themselves instead of adopting fellow traders' experiences.

When asked about the influence of telling signs related to social and political events on market movements, most traders from all three focus countries said they don't consider it significant. Given that, it is only natural that the survey participants pay little attention to alleged market trend indicators like the colour of European Central Bank's ex-president Mario Draghi's tie.

A modern approach to trading insights

While the respondents' reliance on lucky charms and signs as a trustworthy source of information amounted to less than 20% for all three countries, traders showed a strong preference for obtaining trading signals from outside. Many have a mentor and take part in a traders' community, while others rely on modern tools for trading insights. For example, a number of Indonesian survey participants said they fall back on OctaTrader, Octa's proprietary trading platform, for expert predictions and analytical research. OctaTrader offers its clients an analytical hub called Space. Seamlessly integrated into the OctaTrader application, Space has the form of a customised feed consisting of timely and actionable curated posts filtered by tradable assets, trading style, or other user-defined criteria. Space is designed to deliver decision-making support and contains a wealth of educational content, making trading more data-driven and efficient.

Favourite days of the week

As experienced traders know, successfully navigating the ebbs and flows of financial markets and knowing when to act and when to keep still is instrumental in achieving consistent gains. Given that, scheduling trading sessions for particular days of the week seems beneficial to most respondents. About half of the survey participants believe Wednesday and Thursday are the most favourable days for trading. This strong preference has a logical rationale behind it. According to Kar Yong Ang, Octa Broker financial market analyst, Wednesday is when the US Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision, which tends to send ripples throughout the global financial market. In the same vein, Thursday is considered a favourable trading day as it often follows the dynamics established on Wednesday. As such, it seems more predictable than other days of the week.

However, this opinion is not uniform. For example, one respondent declared he tends to be especially successful on Mondays and Fridays and will firmly stick to these days no matter what, disregarding any evidence to the contrary.

To each their own

When asked about their personal trading rituals, traditions, and lucky signs, some respondents gave remarkable and unorthodox answers. Here are some of the things that, according to traders' beliefs, influence good or bad luck in trading:

• letting their cat sleep on the desk undisturbed;

• sensing the right ear buzzing or feeling an itch in the right palm before or during the session is a sign of the oncoming good fortune;

• relaxing and brewing coffee before the session positively impacts the outcomes;

• bathing with bath soap while repeating positive affirmations helps improve trading results;

• using nutmeg as a lucky charm;

• practising feng shui and using essential oils to clear the mind. It brings calm and leads to abundance.

Although some exotic rituals exist among traders, the vast majority put their faith in skill and knowledge rather than luck. As one Nigerian survey participant put it, ‘I don't believe in any rituals, traditions, or stuff like that. I believe in my strategies and strict discipline.’

Octa is an international broker providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and a variety of services already utilised by clients from 180 countries with more than 42 million trading accounts. Octa's free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools help clients reach their investment goals.

The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including the improvement of educational infrastructure and short-notice relief projects supporting local communities.

Octa has won more than 70 awards since its foundation, including the ‘Best Educational Broker 2023’ award from World Business Outlook and the ‘Best Global Broker Asia 2022’ award from International Business Magazine.