HFM information and reviews
HFM
96%
FXCC information and reviews
FXCC
92%
FxPro information and reviews
FxPro
89%
FBS information and reviews
FBS
88%
XM information and reviews
XM
86%
Exness information and reviews
Exness
86%

How to avoid analysts' mistakes?


We often hear about an undervalued asset, an unfair exchange rate, or an overvalued dividend forecast. In my opinion, such "expert" statements can not be trusted, but serve as a sign of speaker’s ignorance. In such case, the person puts his opinion above the market's efficiency, although often such radical forecasts are carried out simply by virtue of the theory of probability.

Many are confused, so I’ll briefly remind you that "market efficiency" is understood as its ability to reach a fair price of an asset at any given time. This does not mean at all that an "efficient market" should effectively bring in money to investors and managers, although such a bundle can often be heard from analysts.

Arguing to their trading ideas, very often for the sake of wit, "experts" throw quotes from behavioral finance theories and effective market analysis into a discussion. They sound convincing, but as a rule, it does not indicate in any way that it is reasonable to accept these ideas. It is important to understand the terms here, and you will be able to find similar, sometimes funny, errors in analytical reviews.

The essay below briefly explains the essence of these two theories. From myself I will add that I have always believed that it is only the market which is always right. It is made by people and the robots created by them, and it is the diversity of their opinions and strategies that makes it possible to adequately evaluate this or that tool. Good luck!

A game for fools?


Of course, behavioral finance experts recognize the role of diversity in pricing. Here is what Andrei Shleifer writes in his remarkable book "Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance":

The hypothesis of an effective market is not confirmed and is not refuted by the assumption of investor rationality. Many models based on the irrational behavior of some investors, nevertheless, predict efficient markets. The argument is usually given the case when irrational investors in the market trade as necessary. If there are a lot of such investors and if their trading strategies do not correlate with each other, their transactions will neutralize each other. As a result, in such a market ... prices will be close to the base value.

The problem is that in behavioral finance, a variety of investors is seen as the exception rather than the rule. Shleifer continues:

"This argument relies mainly on the lack of correlation of strategies among irrational investors and therefore applies to a rather narrow circle."

Finally, Shleifer argues that arbitration - another mechanism that brings prices into line with fundamental value - is risky, so the possibilities for arbitration are in reality limited.

Thus, Shleifer makes the following conclusions: since investors are irrational, and their strategies are more often correlated than not, markets are inefficient. In addition, arbitration may not always make the market efficient. Therefore, market inefficiency is the rule, and efficiency is the exception. And active portfolio management in a fundamentally inefficient market is a game for fools.

We believe that the majority of professional market participants believe exactly the opposite: market efficiency is the rule, and inefficiency - the exception. After all, we see how, in many complex systems, diverse decisions and actions of individuals create rational outcomes. The team invariably replays the average individual. An investor ecosystem on the market is usually sufficient to ensure that there is no systematic way to replay the market. Thus, diversity is assumed to be the default, and loss of diversity is always a notable (and potentially profitable) exception.

See money, imitate money.


If diversity generates an efficient market, then the loss of diversity makes the markets prone to inefficiency. In short, if you turn to behavioral finance as a tool for finding investment opportunities, then look for them at the collective level.

A good example is the herd when a large group of investors perform the same actions on the basis of observing others, regardless of their individual knowledge. From time to time in the markets there are periods when any one mood begins to dominate. Such a loss of diversity usually leads to a market boom (everyone becomes bull) or sharp falls (everyone becomes bear).

As far as I know, there is no tool that would accurately and consistently measure the level of diversity in the market. Good hints can give an objective assessment of publicly expressed in the media and private opinions. The key to successful counter investing is to focus on the behavior and mistakes of the crowd, not its individual members.

Author: Kate Solano, Forex-Ratings.com

RELATED

A Guide to Indices Trading

Indices measure the price performance of a basket of securities or a group of shares. Indices trading provides investors with the opportunity to gain exposure...

What is Non-Deliverable Forward (NDF)?

A non-deliverable forward (NDF) is a forward or futures contract that is settled in cash, and often short-term in nature. In an NDF contract, two parties agree to take opposite...

Trading EURGBP on Brexit Uncertainty

Ask most established currency pair traders to pick between fundamental and technical analysis, and you'll often get a lengthy monologue

What Is A Recession? Definition, Causes & Warning Signs

Economic development is cyclical - a boom is always followed by a downturn. Such a downturn is called a recession, a phenomenon that recurs with varying frequency and depth...

How Does Cryptocurrecy Work?

When Bitcoin came along, it introduced a whole new world of digital currencies that are powered by various technologies, such as blockchain and cryptography...

All you need to know about cryptocurrency

The market of cryptocurrency is based on supply and demand; thus, it fluctuates widely. For instance, Bitcoin has experienced rapid spikes in December 2017 at $20K...

What is an Index Fund? A Definitive Guide

When faced with volatility in the financial markets, your first defence against the inevitable is having a well-balanced and diversified portfolio. Diversification of your portfolio can be done in many ways...

HF Markets Enhances Its HFcopy Trading Platform for Enhanced Trading Synergy

HF Markets has announced significant upgrades to its HFcopy program, catering to both Strategy Providers (SPs) and Followers, thereby solidifying its position as a premier copy trading platform...

What Is the Safemoon Coin, and Can It Rise to the Moon?

The cryptocurrency market is moving so quickly that it's getting harder to keep up with new coins. Just days following the first big surge of Dogecoin, the market saw another...

How to Create NFT Art?

NFT stands for non-fungible token. This is a unique token on a blockchain that cannot be replaced with something else. For example, Bitcoin is fungible...

Cryptocurrency Market: How to Choose the Best Platform

Do you have an interest in the cryptocurrency market? Do you want to start trading? Are you unsure of what cryptocurrency trading entails? Do you know how the market...

Dash Coin: Overview and Main Features

At one point, investments in Dash were highly profitable. Many traders received significant gains from the Dash cryptocurrency when the price action surpassed a $1,500...

What is Decentralized Finance, or DeFi?

Decentralized finance, or DeFi, is similar to but not identical to Bitcoin (BTC). The term "DeFi" refers to financial systems enabled by decentralized blockchain technology. DeFi is mostly linked to the Ethereum (ETH) blockchain...

Six Types of Index Funds And How To Choose One

New to trading products like indices that offer instant diversification? Open a demo account with Vantage Markets today and practise your trading strategies...

Guide: How To Make Money With Bitcoin In 2021

Bitcoin has been making headlines for over a year, smashing record after record and setting a new all-time high over $60,000. The coin, which rose from virtually worthless...

InvestLite: Bitcoin investment explained

Bitcoin is digital money that does not physically exist. However, there are special registers where information is stored about how many bitcoins someone...

How to boost your trading efficiency and pave the road to success

Trading offers unique opportunities to earn additional income and establish a profitable business. A strategic mindset is imperative to distinguish yourself from those who squander financial resources...

Maximize Your Profits in 2022 Through the Best Forex Advisors

Practically all modern Forex expert advisors are built on the foundation of the complex programming language called MetaQuotes versions 4 and 5, which are also used...

TOP 10 Gold-Backed Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrency, being a relatively new asset, has many people interested, but it can also be used for just pure speculation. Digitizing ownership of gold is an area of interest that...

Security Tokens Versus Utility Tokens: Which Is Better?

The cryptocurrency industry is vast and diverse. There are DeFi tokens, non-fungible tokens (NFTs), Bitcoin, altcoins, and much more. The categories of crypto assets...

FP Markets information and reviews
FP Markets
81%
IronFX information and reviews
IronFX
77%
T4Trade information and reviews
T4Trade
76%
Just2Trade information and reviews
Just2Trade
76%
FXNovus information and reviews
FXNovus
75%
Riverquode information and reviews
Riverquode
75%

© 2006-2025 Forex-Ratings.com

The usage of this website constitutes acceptance of the following legal information.
Any contracts of financial instruments offered to conclude bear high risks and may result in the full loss of the deposited funds. Prior to making transactions one should get acquainted with the risks to which they relate. All the information featured on the website (reviews, brokers' news, comments, analysis, quotes, forecasts or other information materials provided by Forex Ratings, as well as information provided by the partners), including graphical information about the forex companies, brokers and dealing desks, is intended solely for informational purposes, is not a means of advertising them, and doesn't imply direct instructions for investing. Forex Ratings shall not be liable for any loss, including unlimited loss of funds, which may arise directly or indirectly from the usage of this information. The editorial staff of the website does not bear any responsibility whatsoever for the content of the comments or reviews made by the site users about the forex companies. The entire responsibility for the contents rests with the commentators. Reprint of the materials is available only with the permission of the editorial staff.
We use cookies to improve your experience and to make your stay with us more comfortable. By using Forex-Ratings.com website you agree to the cookies policy.