HFM information and reviews
HFM
96%
FXCC information and reviews
FXCC
92%
FxPro information and reviews
FxPro
89%
FBS information and reviews
FBS
88%
XM information and reviews
XM
86%
Exness information and reviews
Exness
86%

How to avoid analysts' mistakes?


We often hear about an undervalued asset, an unfair exchange rate, or an overvalued dividend forecast. In my opinion, such "expert" statements can not be trusted, but serve as a sign of speaker’s ignorance. In such case, the person puts his opinion above the market's efficiency, although often such radical forecasts are carried out simply by virtue of the theory of probability.

Many are confused, so I’ll briefly remind you that "market efficiency" is understood as its ability to reach a fair price of an asset at any given time. This does not mean at all that an "efficient market" should effectively bring in money to investors and managers, although such a bundle can often be heard from analysts.

Arguing to their trading ideas, very often for the sake of wit, "experts" throw quotes from behavioral finance theories and effective market analysis into a discussion. They sound convincing, but as a rule, it does not indicate in any way that it is reasonable to accept these ideas. It is important to understand the terms here, and you will be able to find similar, sometimes funny, errors in analytical reviews.

The essay below briefly explains the essence of these two theories. From myself I will add that I have always believed that it is only the market which is always right. It is made by people and the robots created by them, and it is the diversity of their opinions and strategies that makes it possible to adequately evaluate this or that tool. Good luck!

A game for fools?


Of course, behavioral finance experts recognize the role of diversity in pricing. Here is what Andrei Shleifer writes in his remarkable book "Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance":

The hypothesis of an effective market is not confirmed and is not refuted by the assumption of investor rationality. Many models based on the irrational behavior of some investors, nevertheless, predict efficient markets. The argument is usually given the case when irrational investors in the market trade as necessary. If there are a lot of such investors and if their trading strategies do not correlate with each other, their transactions will neutralize each other. As a result, in such a market ... prices will be close to the base value.

The problem is that in behavioral finance, a variety of investors is seen as the exception rather than the rule. Shleifer continues:

"This argument relies mainly on the lack of correlation of strategies among irrational investors and therefore applies to a rather narrow circle."

Finally, Shleifer argues that arbitration - another mechanism that brings prices into line with fundamental value - is risky, so the possibilities for arbitration are in reality limited.

Thus, Shleifer makes the following conclusions: since investors are irrational, and their strategies are more often correlated than not, markets are inefficient. In addition, arbitration may not always make the market efficient. Therefore, market inefficiency is the rule, and efficiency is the exception. And active portfolio management in a fundamentally inefficient market is a game for fools.

We believe that the majority of professional market participants believe exactly the opposite: market efficiency is the rule, and inefficiency - the exception. After all, we see how, in many complex systems, diverse decisions and actions of individuals create rational outcomes. The team invariably replays the average individual. An investor ecosystem on the market is usually sufficient to ensure that there is no systematic way to replay the market. Thus, diversity is assumed to be the default, and loss of diversity is always a notable (and potentially profitable) exception.

See money, imitate money.


If diversity generates an efficient market, then the loss of diversity makes the markets prone to inefficiency. In short, if you turn to behavioral finance as a tool for finding investment opportunities, then look for them at the collective level.

A good example is the herd when a large group of investors perform the same actions on the basis of observing others, regardless of their individual knowledge. From time to time in the markets there are periods when any one mood begins to dominate. Such a loss of diversity usually leads to a market boom (everyone becomes bull) or sharp falls (everyone becomes bear).

As far as I know, there is no tool that would accurately and consistently measure the level of diversity in the market. Good hints can give an objective assessment of publicly expressed in the media and private opinions. The key to successful counter investing is to focus on the behavior and mistakes of the crowd, not its individual members.

Author: Kate Solano, Forex-Ratings.com

RELATED

Cryptocurrency Market: How to Choose the Best Platform

Do you have an interest in the cryptocurrency market? Do you want to start trading? Are you unsure of what cryptocurrency trading entails? Do you know how the market...

Bitcoin Trading Strategy Never Works

Bottom-picking is one of the most profitable plays you can make in trading cryptocurrencies. It's also one of the most difficult times to pull the trigger...

What Is Crypto Lending and How Does It Work?

Crypto lending allows cryptocurrency owners to lend their coins to borrowers. They will gain some profit as a result of this. It's more like putting money in a savings account...

Applying VSA in Forex Trading: Everything You Need to Know

Tick volumes are one of the simplest options for VSA analysis Most forex traders are familiar with technical and fundamental analysis. There are several ways to use these two methods...

Trust Management vs PAMM

In the many countries, the banking sector was, and still remains, the most common investment segment. The share of bank deposits in an...

Delving into the Webs of Influence: Dissecting the Role of Past Performances in Sculpting Future Achievements

In the continuously evolving sphere of human endeavors, the relentless quest to decipher whether the footprints of past performances imprint on the sands of future successes remains a focal fascination among scholars, analysts, and industrial protagonists...

Swing Trading: a Trading Style for Professionals

The classification of traders might seem sketchy. However, there is a clear division between them based on the period of holding an open position...

Oscillating Indicators

As their name suggests, oscillating indicators are indicators that move back and forth as prices rise and fall. Oscillating indicators can help you decide how strong...

NFP trading: understanding the effects of the Nonfarm Payroll

Professional traders often consider economic announcements as a reliable indicator of coming price action, and one of the biggest reports that capture traders' attention is the NFP...

What is staking and how does it work?

When it comes to earning with cryptocurrencies, investors usually consider buying prospective assets or mining them. However, there is an alternative...

What is a Zero-Knowledge Rollup?

Blockchain technology is revolutionizing the way we store, transmit, and validate data. However, as the popularity of blockchain technology grows, so too does the demand for faster...

Top Tech Trends of the Future for Trading

Tech development impacts our daily lives as well as traders’ profits. Technologies change rapidly, creating new opportunities in everyday routine and the stock market...

How to Construct a Mechanical Forex Trading System

As forex software becomes more complex and automation becomes more common, many traders now rely on mechanical forex trading systems...

TOP 10 Gold-Backed Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrency, being a relatively new asset, has many people interested, but it can also be used for just pure speculation. Digitizing ownership of gold is an area of interest that...

What Are The Bulls Power And Bears Power Indicators?

To make forex trading as productive as possible and to make trades more accurate, it is recommended to use technical tools, such as indicators. The choice of indicators directly depends...

Discovering Cryptocurrency Margin Trading

Margin Trading has become a popular term across many different trading markets, and in recent times it has become very highly regarded in the emerging cryptocurrency...

NEO Price Prediction: Invest or Skip?

NEO isn't the most popular cryptocurrency, especially when compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether and Ripple. Currently, it's ranked only 26th by CoinMarketCap in terms of market capitalisation...

Dealing With Volatility: What Is VIX Index?

Volatility is a great factor when it comes to trading and the market. Hence, market indicators were developed to help traders quantify the volatility expectations of the market...

STEPN: Libertex explains what you need to know about the "move-to-earn" crypto trend

STEPN (GMT) is a so-called "move-to-earn" crypto token that was launched back in the summer of 2021. However, the price of STEPN has recently picked up...

Cryptocurrency Volatility at Forex

There's no doubt that cryptocurrency volatility has helped some people to grow their wealth in a very short time frame. It is equally...

FP Markets information and reviews
FP Markets
81%
IronFX information and reviews
IronFX
77%
T4Trade information and reviews
T4Trade
76%
Just2Trade information and reviews
Just2Trade
76%
FXNovus information and reviews
FXNovus
75%
Riverquode information and reviews
Riverquode
75%

© 2006-2025 Forex-Ratings.com

The usage of this website constitutes acceptance of the following legal information.
Any contracts of financial instruments offered to conclude bear high risks and may result in the full loss of the deposited funds. Prior to making transactions one should get acquainted with the risks to which they relate. All the information featured on the website (reviews, brokers' news, comments, analysis, quotes, forecasts or other information materials provided by Forex Ratings, as well as information provided by the partners), including graphical information about the forex companies, brokers and dealing desks, is intended solely for informational purposes, is not a means of advertising them, and doesn't imply direct instructions for investing. Forex Ratings shall not be liable for any loss, including unlimited loss of funds, which may arise directly or indirectly from the usage of this information. The editorial staff of the website does not bear any responsibility whatsoever for the content of the comments or reviews made by the site users about the forex companies. The entire responsibility for the contents rests with the commentators. Reprint of the materials is available only with the permission of the editorial staff.
We use cookies to improve your experience and to make your stay with us more comfortable. By using Forex-Ratings.com website you agree to the cookies policy.