HFM information and reviews
HFM
96%
FXCC information and reviews
FXCC
92%
FxPro information and reviews
FxPro
89%
FBS information and reviews
FBS
88%
XM information and reviews
XM
86%
Exness information and reviews
Exness
86%

Thin liquidity and month-end could keep the dollar under pressure


29 November 2024

Raffi Boyadjian   Written by Raffi Boyadjian

Markets prepare for an eventful December

Pending a major development, the week is likely to finish on a quiet note as the US markets will open today but close early. With Fed speakers taking a back seat this week, geopolitics dominated the headlines. The situation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict remains tense, with both sides allegedly preparing for another round of long-range missile attacks.

On the flip side, the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah was a very positive step, but maintaining this agreement appears to be an even more challenging task. Amidst these developments, gold is closing the week in the red, completing a very negative month. November is actually the weakest performance month since September 2023, when gold dropped by around 4.7% on the back of the “higher-for-longer” Fed rate expectations.

Risky assets benefited in November

Courtesy of the US presidential elections, November has been an extremely eventful and volatile month. Risky assets have rallied, with the cryptocurrency market benefiting the most. Despite bitcoin failing to break above the $100k level, it is up 37% in November, with the remaining key cryptos enjoying even stronger returns.

US equity indices survived a mixed earnings round, ending November in the green, led by the Dow Jones index. The stars of the month, though, have been the small-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 index being very close to achieving the second 10%+ monthly return of 2024. Considering that the customary Santa Claus rally could still lie ahead, there is a strong market belief that US equities could remain comfortably in the green until the festive season.

Strong dollar gains in November, with some exceptions

The US dollar has also recorded sizeable gains in November, outperforming both the pound and the euro. There are some exceptions though, as dollar/loonie is only 0.5% higher for the month, despite the ultra-dovish BoC. This trend could reverse today if the Canadian GDP report for the third quarter of 2024 produces an upside surprise

Euro bulls try to recover part of their losses against the dollar

It has been an extremely weak month for the euro, losing ground across the board. Despite the euro bulls’ attempts to stage a meaningful recovery this week, the euro’s outlook remains mostly largely bearish. Economic data have been weak, supporting the doves’ intentions for a strong rate cut in December and thus acting as a significant headwind for euro bulls’ efforts.

Following last week’s abysmal PMI surveys, the eurozone CPI report will be released today. With the German headline figure printing at 2.2% year-on-year increase, 0.1% below expectations, there is a risk for a similar downside surprise at the eurozone aggregate figure.

A small miss today is unlikely to change the outlook for the December ECB meeting, with the market currently pricing in a 20% probability for a 50bps rate cut. However, the thin trading conditions today could exacerbate market reactions, with euro/dollar potentially reacting more forcefully to a surprise figure.

Yen benefits from a strong Tokyo CPI report

The yen is having another strong day, as the latest set of CPI data from Tokyo keeps the door open to a BoJ rate hike in 20 days. Specifically, both the headline and core inflation indicators for November surged higher, above market expectations. Despite the weaker retail trade data, dollar/yen is recording another strong red candle, dropping below the ¥150 area.

By XM.com

#source


RELATED

Dollar extends slide ahead of PCE inflation data

Fed Governor Waller reiterates support for lower interest rates; PCE inflation data may impact Fed rate cut bets beyond September; S&P 500 and Dow Jones hit fresh record highs; Gold gains, approaches upper boundary of sideways range.

29 Aug 2025

Equities rebound ahead of Nvidia earnings, dollar also firms

Steadier bonds and AI optimism help stocks to bounce back, Nvidia eyed; Dollar edges up as Fed independence fears ease slightly; But inflation and borrowing concerns keep risk appetite in check.

27 Aug 2025

Fed Chair Powell pushes the dollar off a cliff

Powell hints at a September cut, traders sell dollars; Wall Street indices rally, Dow Jones hits fresh record high; Attention to slowly shift to PCE inflation data later this week; BoJ Gov. Ueda expresses optimism about another rate hike soon.

25 Aug 2025

Fed hawks lower expectations for Powell’s Jackson Hole speech

September rate cut in question as Fed officials reluctant to switch policy; Dollar firms as bets grow that Powell will not send strong rate cut signal; Wall Street slips again as tech stocks continue to wobble.

22 Aug 2025

Markets muted as Jackson Hole awaited for direction

Investors struggle for direction amid the wait for rate clues from Powell; Fed minutes set hawkish tone ahead of Jackson Hole speech; US dollar edges higher, Wall Street steadier after tech selloff; Euro ticks up on stronger-than-expected flash PMIs.

21 Aug 2025

Gold edges up ahead of Ukraine talks, dollar steady

White House talks on Ukraine eyed after Alaska summit ends with little progress; Gold reverses higher, dollar flat after mixed US data; Stocks at or near record highs, Jackson Hole awaited for Fed clues.

18 Aug 2025

Stagflation fears keep dollar pinned near lows but stocks rebound

Markets subdued after ISM Services PMI revives inflation and growth worries; Dollar returns to post-NFP lows, gold eases from highs; Trump flags tariffs on pharmaceuticals and chips but equities inch higher.

6 Aug 2025

How Exness uses technology to deliver reliable liquidity, pricing, and execution

Liquidity and price accuracy are central to online CFD (contracts for difference) trading, but few brokers explain how they deliver either.

28 Jul 2025

US data supports patient Fed, deal with EU boosts appetite

Dollar gains as data allow the Fed to stay in wait-and-see mode. US and EU secure trade deal, tariff clock is ticking for others. Wall Street at record highs amid trade optimism and better earnings. Pound slides after retail sales, yen retreats even as BoJ hike bets increase.

28 Jul 2025

Trump announces tariffs on Mexico and EU

The US dollar gained against nearly all its peers on Friday, and continued to march north today, mainly driven by safe haven flows as US President Trump continued threatening the US’s trading partners with more tariffs.

14 Jul 2025

Trade tensions heat up, dollar firms, but stocks and cryptos stay bullish

Trump threatens 35% tariffs on Canada in another shock move, EU could be next. Remaining countries face tariffs of 15% or 20% in a major escalation. Gold gains some traction but star performer is Bitcoin, hitting new record.

11 Jul 2025

Trump threatens 50% tariffs on Brazil but stocks shrug it off, dollar steady

Trump announces fresh round of tariffs on Brazil and smaller nations; But only mild risk aversion as Nvidia drives equities higher, hits $4 trillion cap; Fed minutes erase July cut bets as doves in the minority, dollar supported.

10 Jul 2025

Markets await trade deals as Trump makes new tariff threats

The dreaded July 9 deadline for countries to reach trade deals with the United States is only two days away and President Trump has already pushed it back, amid signs of both progress and frictions.

7 Jul 2025

Risk appetite improves further ahead of PCE inflation data

Dollar stuck at 3-year low despite trade optimism; Fed rate cut bets weigh; Nasdaq 100 lifts global stocks to all-time highs, gold skids; Will the US PCE inflation report support or spoil the positive mood?

27 Jun 2025

Trump attacks Powell again; dollar hits new low, techs rally

Rate cut bets increase after Trump raises prospect of ‘shadow’ Fed chair; Dollar hits new 3-year low, but Wall Street flirts with record highs; Bitcoin extends gains amid geopolitical de-escalation, gold rebounds.

26 Jun 2025

Mideast conflict escalates as US strikes Iran but oil pares gains

US joins Israel-Iran conflict, strikes three nuclear sites; Oil jumps before pulling back as world awaits Iran response; Dollar edges higher but gold again fails to catch a bid; Euro dips but rebounds on mildly upbeat June PMIs.

23 Jun 2025

Oil surges as Israel attacks Iran, gold and dollar climb too

Israel launches military strikes on Iran as tensions flare; Oil jumps more than 10%, safe havens rally but stocks plunge; Bond yields fall ahead of big week for central bank decisions.

13 Jun 2025

US and China restore trade truce but markets subdued ahead of US CPI

US and China reach framework deal but lack of details caps sentiment; Fed rate cut bets scaled back ahead of expected US CPI increase; Cautious risk appetite supports equities, dollar steadier but gold climbs; Pound extends slide ahead of UK government’s spending review.

11 Jun 2025

Dollar bounces from six-week low, BoC decides on rates

Dollar rebounds on hopes of Trump-Xi call. Data points to labor market weakness ahead of Friday's NFP. Eurozone CPI slows ahead of ECB, BoC set to stand pat. Stocks gain, gold retreats, oil advances on geopolitical tensions.

4 Jun 2025

Uncertainty remains high at end of rollercoaster week for the dollar

US appeals court reinstates Trump’s tariffs, adding to market confusion; Dollar whipsaws, while Nvidia comes to Wall Street’s rescue; PCE inflation awaited as soft US data boost Fed rate cut bets; Gold can’t catch a bid amid some trade optimism, set to end week lower.

30 May 2025


Editors' Picks

How to Choose the Best Forex Advisor 2025

Key Factors to Consider When Choosing a Forex Advisor. Risk Management. Fees and Costs. Compatibility with Your Trading Style.

Automating Success: The Benefits and Risks of Using Forex Expert Advisors

This article explores the benefits and risks associated with using Forex Expert Advisors, providing insights into how traders can maximize their potential while mitigating potential downsides.

Best Forex Brokers 2025

By prioritizing factors such as overall rating, regulatory compliance, trading conditions and platform reliability traders can make an informed decision that aligns with their trading needs and aspirations, setting the stage for a potentially prosperous trading journey.

The Top Forex Expert Advisors 2024: Performance, Strategy, and Reliability Review

An annual roundup reviewing the most successful Forex Expert Advisors (EAs) based on their performance, strategies employed, reliability, and user feedback. This piece would provide insights into which EAs have been market leaders and why.

The Evolution of Forex Expert Advisors: Navigating the Path of Technological Revolution

The concept of automated trading has been around for decades, but the accessibility and sophistication of Forex EAs have seen significant advancements in the past few years. Initially, automated trading systems were rudimentary, focusing on simple indicators like moving averages.

Best Forex EAs – Forex Expert Advisors Rating

Expert Advisors (EAs) Rating features high-quality Free and paid Forex EA most popular on the market today.

FP Markets information and reviews
FP Markets
81%
IronFX information and reviews
IronFX
77%
T4Trade information and reviews
T4Trade
76%
Just2Trade information and reviews
Just2Trade
76%
FXNovus information and reviews
FXNovus
75%
Riverquode information and reviews
Riverquode
75%

© 2006-2025 Forex-Ratings.com

The usage of this website constitutes acceptance of the following legal information.
Any contracts of financial instruments offered to conclude bear high risks and may result in the full loss of the deposited funds. Prior to making transactions one should get acquainted with the risks to which they relate. All the information featured on the website (reviews, brokers' news, comments, analysis, quotes, forecasts or other information materials provided by Forex Ratings, as well as information provided by the partners), including graphical information about the forex companies, brokers and dealing desks, is intended solely for informational purposes, is not a means of advertising them, and doesn't imply direct instructions for investing. Forex Ratings shall not be liable for any loss, including unlimited loss of funds, which may arise directly or indirectly from the usage of this information. The editorial staff of the website does not bear any responsibility whatsoever for the content of the comments or reviews made by the site users about the forex companies. The entire responsibility for the contents rests with the commentators. Reprint of the materials is available only with the permission of the editorial staff.
We use cookies to improve your experience and to make your stay with us more comfortable. By using Forex-Ratings.com website you agree to the cookies policy.