EUR/JPY broke into a new high for the bullish cycle but is consolidating. The ECB will be the focus for the week ahead. EUR/JPY is trading at 150.86 and has traded within a range of 150.76 and 150.87 so far. The bears are lurking and eye a break below last week´s and month´s highs for a move into the bullish rally that kicked off on Friday. However, there are a number of events this week that will dictate the price action from here, including the Europen Central Bank interest rate decision.
Easing financial system stress, persistently high inflation, strong wage growth, and avoidance of a winter recession are enough for the ECB to comfortably hike rates by 25bps in May and re-introduce guidance that more tightening is to come, analysts at TD Securities argued. ´We wouldn't completely rule out a 50bps hike should data ahead of the decision surprise significantly but that would come without guidance.
Analysts at ANZ Bank explained that if core inflation is still ratcheting higher in annual terms and both bank lending conditions and credit are holding up well, the ECB could opt for a 50bp rise. Hawks have said that a 50bp rise is on the table.
The question for the ECB is how persistent inflation will be and if second-round effects are emerging. We expect future rate rises to be determined meeting by meeting and see a risk that tightening could extend into Q3, the analysts at TD Securities added. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan, instead of tweaking forward guidance, central it entirely. This suggests that the BoJ will become more data-dependent, with two-way policy risks and more flexibility. BoJ left its key policy levers unchanged as widely expected, with the 10y JGB yield target at about 0%, policy balance rate at -0.1% and YCC band unaltered.
