HFM information and reviews
HFM
96%
FXCC information and reviews
FXCC
92%
FxPro information and reviews
FxPro
89%
FBS information and reviews
FBS
88%
XM information and reviews
XM
86%
Exness information and reviews
Exness
86%

Investors lock gaze on NFP data


6 September 2024

Raffi Boyadjian   Written by Raffi Boyadjian

Data fail to alleviate investors’ worries

The dollar traded lower against all of its major counterparts on Thursday as the boost received by the better-than-expected initial jobless claims and the improving ISM non-manufacturing PMI faded.

The reason why traders were not enthusiastic about buying more dollars may have been the soft ADP report ahead of the aforementioned data, but also the decline in the employment sub-index of the ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

Worries about the state of the US labor market pushed higher the probability of a double 50bps rate cut by the Fed at its upcoming gathering, with that probability now standing at around 45%. The total number of basis points worth of expected reductions by the end of the year also increased to 112.

NFP the dollar’s biggest test

Investors are now probably biting their nails in anticipation of the official US employment report for August, with nonfarm payrolls expected to have accelerated to 164k from 114k, and the unemployment rate to have ticked down to 4.2% from 4.3%. Such an improvement may allow the dollar to strengthen, and Treasury yields to recover as traders could see a 25bps reduction at the upcoming Fed gathering as a more realistic scenario.

That said, the ADP report revealed yesterday that the private sector gained 99k jobs in August, while the forecast of today’s report for private payrolls is at 139k. Combined with the relatively soft employment subindices of both the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs, this poses some downside risks to today’s data.

Risk appetite subdued ahead of jobs report

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones finished another day in the red, while the Nasdaq held 0.25% above its opening level. The fact that equities are sliding at times when Fed rate cut bets are piling up suggests that investors may be afraid that an economic downturn is coming.

In other words, bad data is actually bad for the stock market nowadays, as investor anxiety about the state of the world’s largest economy does not allow them to celebrate the prospect of lower borrowing costs. This means that a weaker-than-expected report may exert additional pressure on stocks and other risk-linked assets.

Gold rebounds, oil pauses free fall

The weakening dollar helped gold to rebound and get within a breathing distance from its record high of $2,532, hit on August 20. Expectations of aggressive rate cuts by the Fed are benefiting the non-yielding metal and if today’s NFP report points to further cooling in the US labor market, the metal may climb into uncharted territory.

After Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s free fall, oil prices stabilized yesterday, perhaps aided by the dollar’s retreat, but also by news that the OPEC+ group was in discussions to delay a possible output increase due to a potential increase in Libya’s production following a deal to end the dispute that curtailed exports and production.

The oil-linked loonie held relatively strong, even as the BoC cut interest rates for a third consecutive time on Wednesday. That said, with investors anticipating a fourth reduction in October, today’s employment report may be a reason for volatility in the currency, especially against its US counterpart, as the Canadian jobs data comes out at the same time as the US numbers.

by XM.com

#source


RELATED

Dollar drops as Fed rate cut looms

US dollar and Treasury yields drop ahead of Fed decision. President Trump urges Powell to deliver bigger cut. Pound up after jobs data, yen gains on BoJ hike bets. S&P 500, Nasdaq and gold hit new record highs.

16 Sep 2025

Risk sentiment on the mend as investors gear up for Fed decision

A defining week has just started, with investors counting down to Wednesday’s pivotal Fed meeting.

15 Sep 2025

Risk appetite improves but investors stay vigilant

Dollar and US equities rally; crypto market is indecisive; Volatility remains elevated despite improved risk sentiment; US PPI data could show tariff impact ahead of CPI report; Gold and oil are supported by broader geopolitical tensions.

10 Sep 2025

Fragile risk appetite as US data boost Fed cut bets

Softer US jobs data leave door open for a larger Fed rate cut; Dollar and US equities try to find their footing today; Yen under pressure after PM Ishiba’s resignation; Gold and oil rally, supported by weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions.

8 Sep 2025

Risk appetite firms up as investors anticipate softer US data

Risk sentiment improves, dollar slightly under pressure; Gold holds gains, bond yields ease across the board; Today’s NFP could determine the size of the Fed rate cut; Decent market reaction if jobs data delivers a strong upside surprise.

5 Sep 2025

Risk markets jittery as expectations for soft US data mount

Risk sentiment remains fragile ahead of the first batch of key US data; Gold and rising bond yields continue to unnerve investors; ADP report and ISM Services PMI might open the door to a 50bps Fed cut; Fedspeak to intensify, markets to digest Miran’s hearing headlines today;

4 Sep 2025

Calm before the storm in markets ahead of pivotal US data

Dollar on the back foot, equities remain wobbly; Court battles in focus after Friday’s tariffs ruling; Investors prepare for critical US data; all eyes on Friday’s jobs report; Uncertainty boosts gold and silver.

1 Sep 2025

Dollar extends slide as Bessent talks double rate cut

Dollar slips on increasing Fed rate cut bets. Treasury Sec. Bessent favors a 50bps reduction. Yen rallies on concerns about BoJ’s inflation metric. S&P 500, Nasdaq and Bitcoin climb to new record highs.

14 Aug 2025

Dollar slips as CPI data increase September Fed cut bets

US headline CPI holds steady, but core CPI accelerates; Still, the miss in the headline rate increases September cut bets; Gold slightly up, but traders remain cautious ahead of Trump-Putin talks

13 Aug 2025

Markets on edge, await US inflation figures

Muted risk appetite ahead of critical US inflation report; Strong CPI report could derail Fed rate cut expectations, boost the dollar; Gold and oil hold steady as Trump-Putin meeting nears; Aussie ignores RBA cut.

12 Aug 2025

Tariff and Fed developments weigh on dollar’s recovery

Muted risk appetite; equity indices edge higher, bitcoin struggles; August 12 deadline for US-China truce in the spotlight; Gold flirts with $3,400 as US prepares to tariff gold bar imports.

8 Aug 2025

Dollar suffers from Trump’s tariff announcements

Tariffs back in the spotlight; China could be next; Equities shrug off tariff headlines but dollar weakens; Gold rises despite progress made in the US-Russia talks; BoE to cut rates; pound’s performance hinges on degree of dovishness.

7 Aug 2025

Dollar seeks direction as Trump’s TV appearance could hurt risk appetite

Following a disastrous Friday for dollar assets, both the US dollar and US equity indices are showing tentative signs of life.

5 Aug 2025

US jobs data may challenge the dollar’s recent strength

Despite the eventful calendar so far this week – with the FOMC meeting and the various tech stock earnings standing out – market volatility had remained low until yesterday.

1 Aug 2025

Dollar rally pauses as Fed signals patience once again

Both the US dollar and US equity indices are trying to find their footing after the critical FOMC meeting.

31 Jul 2025

Dollar strength persists ahead of key events

Both the dollar and US equities start the week on a strong note; Euro suffers as European leaders challenge the US-EU trade deal; Gold retreat stalls; oil fails to materially benefit from Trump's Russia comments.

29 Jul 2025

Dollar on the defensive, seeks support

ECB pauses, raises the bar for September rate cut; Trump’s Fed visit proves uneventful, despite rate cut demand; Dollar losses mount this week, even the yen outperforms the greenback; Cryptos are on the back foot today; altcoins maintain sizeable gains.

25 Jul 2025

EU and US close to a trade deal ahead of ECB decision

After Japan, the US is nearing a trade accord with the EU. S&P Global PMIs in focus ahead of next week’s FOMC decision. ECB to stand pat, Lagarde’s signals to be key for the euro. S&P 500 hits a new record high, but earnings results come in mixed.

24 Jul 2025

Dollar strength undermined by Trump's Fed criticism

Trump firmly holds the keys to market volatility; A July rate cut is likely written off unless data turns negative; US Treasury yields have taken notice of Trump’s criticism of Powell; Pound benefits from euro’s troubles despite mixed UK data.

17 Jul 2025

Dollar battles to maintain recent gains

With the clock running down to the August 1 deadline when the updated tariff levels will probably come into force, US President Trump is now using tariffs as leverage to end the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

15 Jul 2025


Editors' Picks

How to Choose the Best Forex Advisor 2025

Key Factors to Consider When Choosing a Forex Advisor. Risk Management. Fees and Costs. Compatibility with Your Trading Style.

Automating Success: The Benefits and Risks of Using Forex Expert Advisors

This article explores the benefits and risks associated with using Forex Expert Advisors, providing insights into how traders can maximize their potential while mitigating potential downsides.

Best Forex Brokers 2025

By prioritizing factors such as overall rating, regulatory compliance, trading conditions and platform reliability traders can make an informed decision that aligns with their trading needs and aspirations, setting the stage for a potentially prosperous trading journey.

The Top Forex Expert Advisors 2024: Performance, Strategy, and Reliability Review

An annual roundup reviewing the most successful Forex Expert Advisors (EAs) based on their performance, strategies employed, reliability, and user feedback. This piece would provide insights into which EAs have been market leaders and why.

The Evolution of Forex Expert Advisors: Navigating the Path of Technological Revolution

The concept of automated trading has been around for decades, but the accessibility and sophistication of Forex EAs have seen significant advancements in the past few years. Initially, automated trading systems were rudimentary, focusing on simple indicators like moving averages.

Best Forex EAs – Forex Expert Advisors Rating

Expert Advisors (EAs) Rating features high-quality Free and paid Forex EA most popular on the market today.

FP Markets information and reviews
FP Markets
81%
IronFX information and reviews
IronFX
77%
T4Trade information and reviews
T4Trade
76%
Just2Trade information and reviews
Just2Trade
76%
FXNovus information and reviews
FXNovus
75%
Riverquode information and reviews
Riverquode
75%

© 2006-2025 Forex-Ratings.com

The usage of this website constitutes acceptance of the following legal information.
Any contracts of financial instruments offered to conclude bear high risks and may result in the full loss of the deposited funds. Prior to making transactions one should get acquainted with the risks to which they relate. All the information featured on the website (reviews, brokers' news, comments, analysis, quotes, forecasts or other information materials provided by Forex Ratings, as well as information provided by the partners), including graphical information about the forex companies, brokers and dealing desks, is intended solely for informational purposes, is not a means of advertising them, and doesn't imply direct instructions for investing. Forex Ratings shall not be liable for any loss, including unlimited loss of funds, which may arise directly or indirectly from the usage of this information. The editorial staff of the website does not bear any responsibility whatsoever for the content of the comments or reviews made by the site users about the forex companies. The entire responsibility for the contents rests with the commentators. Reprint of the materials is available only with the permission of the editorial staff.
We use cookies to improve your experience and to make your stay with us more comfortable. By using Forex-Ratings.com website you agree to the cookies policy.