HFM information and reviews
HFM
96%
FXCC information and reviews
FXCC
92%
FxPro information and reviews
FxPro
89%
FBS information and reviews
FBS
88%
XM information and reviews
XM
86%
Exness information and reviews
Exness
86%

US dollar's fate tied to incoming US data


30 April 2025

Raffi Boyadjian   Written by Raffi Boyadjian

The improved risk sentiment may be tested today

Risk appetite continues to improve, with US equity indices recording their sixth consecutive green session yesterday. This is the longest streak of positive daily performance since late November 2024, when the markets were feeling exuberant following Trump’s win in the US Presidential election. At the same time, the dollar has failed to make any gains against the euro, but dollar bulls might take solace in the fact that the recent underperformance has probably concluded.

With the US President reaching the 100-days mark since taking office on January 20, the focus today shifts to the US economy. There is a plethora of US data that could shape up next week’s FOMC meeting, but, more importantly, confirm or ease investors’ fears about the immediate growth outlook.

Key US data on the menu today

Economists have penciled in a weak 0.3% QoQ growth increase for the first quarter of 2025, which is miles below the Q4 number of 2.4%. On the flip side, the GDP deflator is seen rising to 3%, which is the highest print since the first quarter of 2024. Personal consumption data will also be closely scrutinized, with consumer spending attracting extra interest in an effort to gauge the US consumers’ response to March’s tariff shenanigans.

The ADP employment report will also be released at 12:15 GMT. An increase of 115k is expected, with the chances for a surprise on either side equally balanced. This is the first key labour market-related figure for April - with nonfarm payrolls following on Friday - reflecting the April 2 reciprocal tariffs announcements and the subsequent back-and-forth by President Trump.

Additionally, with the 10-year US yield dropping to a 3-week low, the Q2 quarterly refunding plan will be announced at 12:30 GMT. While small changes to the auction volumes cannot be excluded, the discussion about the debt ceiling could return in the spotlight.

A plethora of Trump’s comments is expected

In the absence of Fed speakers, Trump is expected to comment on the various US data prints, as he has a series of appearances scheduled to celebrate his 100 days in charge. Trump is expected to take credit for a positive set of data today, and most likely blame the Fed and Chair Powell if the data disappoints.

Trump’s criticism of the Fed could prove even tougher if today’s eurozone data widely opens the door to another ECB rate cut. The preliminary German CPI print for April is expected to slow further to just above 2%, following the weak GDP growth rate recorded in the first quarter of 2025.

The Fed prepares for next week’s meeting as oil prices drop

Regardless of any outside criticism, Fed members are focused on incoming data. The Fed doves are craving a dovish tilt at next week’s meeting, but there is still a heightened risk of a US recession ahead. In this context, WTI oil has quickly dropped below the $60 threshold again, potentially revealing renewed market concerns about the growth outlook, following the mixed PMI survey prints in China earlier today.

Meanwhile, the US administration is trying hard to create a “feel-good” factor about the ongoing trade negotiations. Following the relaxation of some of the 25% tariffs on autos and auto parts, Commerce Secretary Lutnick, stated that one trade agreement is already finished, while Treasury Secretary Bessent commented that 18 key trade deals are ready to be signed by Trump.

Both gold and bitcoin are in waiting mode

Gold continues to hover around the $3,300 level, with the $3,260 barrier acting as a floor. Interestingly, China will be on holiday until May 5, potentially removing one the biggest tailwinds of gold for a few sessions. Similarly, bitcoin is maintaining its recent significant gains. It is trading a tad below the $95k level and awaiting fresh bullish catalysts, particularly another upleg in US equities.

By XM.com

#source


RELATED

Calm before the storm in markets ahead of pivotal US data

Dollar on the back foot, equities remain wobbly; Court battles in focus after Friday’s tariffs ruling; Investors prepare for critical US data; all eyes on Friday’s jobs report; Uncertainty boosts gold and silver.

1 Sep 2025

Dollar extends slide as Bessent talks double rate cut

Dollar slips on increasing Fed rate cut bets. Treasury Sec. Bessent favors a 50bps reduction. Yen rallies on concerns about BoJ’s inflation metric. S&P 500, Nasdaq and Bitcoin climb to new record highs.

14 Aug 2025

Dollar slips as CPI data increase September Fed cut bets

US headline CPI holds steady, but core CPI accelerates; Still, the miss in the headline rate increases September cut bets; Gold slightly up, but traders remain cautious ahead of Trump-Putin talks

13 Aug 2025

Markets on edge, await US inflation figures

Muted risk appetite ahead of critical US inflation report; Strong CPI report could derail Fed rate cut expectations, boost the dollar; Gold and oil hold steady as Trump-Putin meeting nears; Aussie ignores RBA cut.

12 Aug 2025

Tariff and Fed developments weigh on dollar’s recovery

Muted risk appetite; equity indices edge higher, bitcoin struggles; August 12 deadline for US-China truce in the spotlight; Gold flirts with $3,400 as US prepares to tariff gold bar imports.

8 Aug 2025

Dollar suffers from Trump’s tariff announcements

Tariffs back in the spotlight; China could be next; Equities shrug off tariff headlines but dollar weakens; Gold rises despite progress made in the US-Russia talks; BoE to cut rates; pound’s performance hinges on degree of dovishness.

7 Aug 2025

Dollar seeks direction as Trump’s TV appearance could hurt risk appetite

Following a disastrous Friday for dollar assets, both the US dollar and US equity indices are showing tentative signs of life.

5 Aug 2025

US jobs data may challenge the dollar’s recent strength

Despite the eventful calendar so far this week – with the FOMC meeting and the various tech stock earnings standing out – market volatility had remained low until yesterday.

1 Aug 2025

Dollar rally pauses as Fed signals patience once again

Both the US dollar and US equity indices are trying to find their footing after the critical FOMC meeting.

31 Jul 2025

Dollar strength persists ahead of key events

Both the dollar and US equities start the week on a strong note; Euro suffers as European leaders challenge the US-EU trade deal; Gold retreat stalls; oil fails to materially benefit from Trump's Russia comments.

29 Jul 2025

Dollar on the defensive, seeks support

ECB pauses, raises the bar for September rate cut; Trump’s Fed visit proves uneventful, despite rate cut demand; Dollar losses mount this week, even the yen outperforms the greenback; Cryptos are on the back foot today; altcoins maintain sizeable gains.

25 Jul 2025

EU and US close to a trade deal ahead of ECB decision

After Japan, the US is nearing a trade accord with the EU. S&P Global PMIs in focus ahead of next week’s FOMC decision. ECB to stand pat, Lagarde’s signals to be key for the euro. S&P 500 hits a new record high, but earnings results come in mixed.

24 Jul 2025

Dollar strength undermined by Trump's Fed criticism

Trump firmly holds the keys to market volatility; A July rate cut is likely written off unless data turns negative; US Treasury yields have taken notice of Trump’s criticism of Powell; Pound benefits from euro’s troubles despite mixed UK data.

17 Jul 2025

Dollar battles to maintain recent gains

With the clock running down to the August 1 deadline when the updated tariff levels will probably come into force, US President Trump is now using tariffs as leverage to end the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

15 Jul 2025

US tariff letters boost dollar, dent risk appetite

Trump letters and August 1 deadline in focus; Dollar strengthens as both China and the EU avoid tariff letters; Equities are wobbly, while gold confirms lingering demand; Aussie gains as RBA surprises by keeping rates unchanged.

8 Jul 2025

Risk-on sentiment fades as tariffs return to the spotlight

Dollar surrenders gains posted after robust labour market report; Trump celebrates US budget bill approval; scheduled to sign it today.

4 Jul 2025

Nonfarm payrolls take center stage

Slide in US private payrolls raise concerns about NFP miss. US strikes trade deal with Vietnam ahead of July 9 deadline. Pound feels the heat of fiscal shenanigans. S&P 500 hits fresh record high ahead of jobs report.

3 Jul 2025

Dollar steadies as risk appetite eases on data and key deadlines

Dollar tumbles 14% against the euro in the first half of the year; Spotlight stays on US budget bill and trade talks; US data deluge today, an appetizer for Thursday’s jobs report; Oil hovers around $66, gold rally gains momentum.

1 Jul 2025

Trade optimism boosts Fed rate cut bets

Dollar slides as the US gets closer to trade deals. Trump's obsession with lower interest rates also weighs. S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new record highs. Gold in corrective mode due to safe-haven outflows.

30 Jun 2025

Dollar stabilizes amidst mixed risk sentiment

Israel-Iran truce holds; investors focus on the US economy; Powell shuts down July rate cut expectations; US equity rally pauses as dollar tries to recover; Oil hovers around $65, gold bounces higher.

25 Jun 2025


Editors' Picks

How to Choose the Best Forex Advisor 2025

Key Factors to Consider When Choosing a Forex Advisor. Risk Management. Fees and Costs. Compatibility with Your Trading Style.

Automating Success: The Benefits and Risks of Using Forex Expert Advisors

This article explores the benefits and risks associated with using Forex Expert Advisors, providing insights into how traders can maximize their potential while mitigating potential downsides.

Best Forex Brokers 2025

By prioritizing factors such as overall rating, regulatory compliance, trading conditions and platform reliability traders can make an informed decision that aligns with their trading needs and aspirations, setting the stage for a potentially prosperous trading journey.

The Top Forex Expert Advisors 2024: Performance, Strategy, and Reliability Review

An annual roundup reviewing the most successful Forex Expert Advisors (EAs) based on their performance, strategies employed, reliability, and user feedback. This piece would provide insights into which EAs have been market leaders and why.

The Evolution of Forex Expert Advisors: Navigating the Path of Technological Revolution

The concept of automated trading has been around for decades, but the accessibility and sophistication of Forex EAs have seen significant advancements in the past few years. Initially, automated trading systems were rudimentary, focusing on simple indicators like moving averages.

Best Forex EAs – Forex Expert Advisors Rating

Expert Advisors (EAs) Rating features high-quality Free and paid Forex EA most popular on the market today.

FP Markets information and reviews
FP Markets
81%
IronFX information and reviews
IronFX
77%
T4Trade information and reviews
T4Trade
76%
Just2Trade information and reviews
Just2Trade
76%
FXNovus information and reviews
FXNovus
75%
Riverquode information and reviews
Riverquode
75%

© 2006-2025 Forex-Ratings.com

The usage of this website constitutes acceptance of the following legal information.
Any contracts of financial instruments offered to conclude bear high risks and may result in the full loss of the deposited funds. Prior to making transactions one should get acquainted with the risks to which they relate. All the information featured on the website (reviews, brokers' news, comments, analysis, quotes, forecasts or other information materials provided by Forex Ratings, as well as information provided by the partners), including graphical information about the forex companies, brokers and dealing desks, is intended solely for informational purposes, is not a means of advertising them, and doesn't imply direct instructions for investing. Forex Ratings shall not be liable for any loss, including unlimited loss of funds, which may arise directly or indirectly from the usage of this information. The editorial staff of the website does not bear any responsibility whatsoever for the content of the comments or reviews made by the site users about the forex companies. The entire responsibility for the contents rests with the commentators. Reprint of the materials is available only with the permission of the editorial staff.
We use cookies to improve your experience and to make your stay with us more comfortable. By using Forex-Ratings.com website you agree to the cookies policy.